Heading into the 2015 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns have quite a few questions to answer. Though the Eric Bledsoe “rumors” that have spiraled out of control aren’t grounded in fact,...

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Heading into the 2015 NBA Draft, the Phoenix Suns have quite a few questions to answer. Though the Eric Bledsoe “rumors” that have spiraled out of control aren’t grounded in fact,...

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With the 2015 NBA Draft just one day away, ValleyOfTheSuns.com’s Gavin Schall and Scott Chasen are in New York to cover all of the events going on. The following post contains a recap of the...

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Overview As the 2015 NBA Draft approaches, we’ll be taking a look at the top prospects in this year’s class to gain a sense of what the Phoenix Suns should do with their pick. Today, we’ll be taking...

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The Draft is here, and the question on everyone's mind is: which teams will get the players that will ensure a bright future? The reality? Few – if any – of these players will be very productive in the near future. That said, some very talented people – Dave Berri and Ari Caroline – have put together some excellent analysis on the performance of many of the incoming players. So if you'd like some extra information to make you feel better (or worse) about your team's draft night decisions, read on!

Wins Produced

Dave Berri (@wagesofwins), professor of Economics at Southern Utah University and the founder of the Wages of Wins, has calculated the Wins Produced for all of the NCAA Men's basketball players this past season. While a player's college production does correlate with their NBA production, the reality is that it still doesn't explain over half of what ends up deciding how they fare in the NBA. It's possible for players with good college numbers to be busts – hey there, Michael Beasley! It's also possible for players with subpar numbers to blossom – hello Andre Drummond! In short, these numbers aren't a seal of approval or a crystal ball. Rather, consider these transcripts that players bring to a job interview.

Again, Dave went all out with the numbers. Long-term, we'll definitely look into creating a page to be able sort and search these – just like our NBA Players page. Until then, I've decided to look at the top 25 players (according to Wins Produced per 40 minutes) at each position. I haven't filtered out players that have returned to school, meaning these are the "Dean's List" of players from last year's NCAA season.

Centers

Name Team Year MP WP40 Wins
Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Sr 1311 0.264 8.6
Jameel Warney Stony Brook Jr 1148 0.299 8.6
Daniel Ochefu Villanova Jr 865 0.325 7.0
Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa Sr 1063 0.263 7.0
Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky Jr 1012 0.262 6.6
Kendall Gray Delaware State Sr 1149 0.230 6.6
Jahlil Okafor Duke Fr 1143 0.227 6.5
Ryan Spangler Oklahoma Jr 1088 0.227 6.2
Egidijus Mockevicius Evansville Jr 948 0.256 6.1
Ricardo Gathers Baylor Jr 1015 0.230 5.8
A.J. West Nevada Jr 873 0.266 5.8
Michael Holyfield Sam Houston State Sr 628 0.369 5.8
Tonye Jekiri Miami (FL) Jr 1120 0.205 5.7
Shawn Long Louisiana-Lafayette Jr 951 0.241 5.7
Richaun Holmes Bowling Green Sr 892 0.256 5.7
James Webb III Boise State So 886 0.255 5.6
Bobby Portis Arkansas So 1076 0.209 5.6
Mo Alie-Cox VCU So 935 0.238 5.6
Anthony Gill Virginia Jr 859 0.257 5.5
Michale Kyser Louisiana Tech Sr 1026 0.215 5.5
Kyle Wiltjer Gonzaga Jr 1049 0.208 5.4
Josh Scott Colorado Jr 802 0.271 5.4
Jarvis Williams Murray State Sr 1085 0.200 5.4
Eric Stutz Eastern Kentucky Sr 1025 0.210 5.4
Rashid Gaston Norfolk State Jr 995 0.215 5.4

Power Forwards

Name Team Year MP WP40 Wins
Kameron Woods Butler Sr 1063 0.284 7.5
Montrezl Harrell Louisville Jr 1229 0.233 7.2
Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky Fr 824 0.339 7.0
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin So 1318 0.210 6.9
Jordan Parks North Carolina Central Sr 1042 0.264 6.9
Pascal Siakam New Mexico State Fr 1048 0.259 6.8
Jalen Cannon St. Francis (NY) Sr 1184 0.229 6.8
Aaron White Iowa Sr 1070 0.247 6.6
Dom Pointer St. John's Sr 1143 0.230 6.6
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Arizona So 1090 0.236 6.4
Hassan Martin Rhode Island So 949 0.267 6.3
Gary Clark Cincinnati Fr 945 0.262 6.2
Denzel Valentine Michigan State Jr 1295 0.183 5.9
Kevon Looney UCLA Fr 1114 0.212 5.9
Christian Wood UNLV Fr 1078 0.206 5.6
John Simons Central Michigan Jr 982 0.223 5.5
Desharick Guidry McNeese State Sr 1092 0.200 5.4
Dyshawn Pierre Dayton Jr 1201 0.179 5.4
Rakeem Christmas Syracuse Sr 1064 0.200 5.3
Steve Zack La Salle Sr 1029 0.204 5.2
Jordyn Martin Northern Arizona Jr 1045 0.194 5.1
Domas Sabonis Gonzaga Fr 822 0.246 5.1
Richard Ross Old Dominion Sr 883 0.229 5.1
Matt McMullen Colgate Sr 1086 0.186 5.0
Pat Connaughton Notre Dame Sr 1351 0.149 5.0

Small Forwards

Name Team Year MP WP40 Wins
Delon Wright Utah So 1165 0.340 9.9
Jerian Grant Notre Dame Sr 1408 0.242 8.5
Terry Tarpey William & Mary Jr 1000 0.310 7.7
Jordan Fouse Green Bay Jr 1061 0.285 7.6
Thomas Walkup Stephen F. Austin Jr 943 0.320 7.6
Juan'ya Green Hofstra Jr 1239 0.223 6.9
Jalen Nesbitt North Florida Sr 1135 0.238 6.8
Royce O'Neale Baylor Sr 1060 0.250 6.6
Javonte Green Radford Sr 892 0.297 6.6
Kevin Hardy McNeese State Sr 1154 0.229 6.6
Sam Dekker Wisconsin Jr 1239 0.208 6.4
Tyler Kalinoski Davidson Sr 1112 0.223 6.2
Wesley Saunders Harvard Sr 1030 0.234 6.0
J.J. O'Brien San Diego State Sr 1183 0.199 5.9
Anthony Brown Stanford Sr 1320 0.175 5.8
James Siakam Vanderbilt Sr 827 0.280 5.8
Ron Baker Wichita State Jr 1145 0.201 5.8
Jamal Reynolds Canisius Jr 829 0.276 5.7
J.P. Tokoto North Carolina Jr 1098 0.206 5.7
Josh Hart Villanova So 917 0.240 5.5
Patricio Garino George Washington Jr 1107 0.198 5.5
R.J. Hunter Georgia State Jr 1294 0.169 5.5
Isaac Cohen Columbia Jr 834 0.261 5.4
Dominique Lee Northern Colorado Sr 774 0.280 5.4
Kenrich Williams Texas Christian So 917 0.234 5.4

Shooting Guards

Name Team Year MP WP40 Wins
Kyle Collinsworth Brigham Young Jr 1019 0.329 8.4
Corey Walden Eastern Kentucky Sr 1108 0.298 8.3
Gary Payton II Oregon State Jr 1125 0.280 7.9
Monte Morris Iowa State So 1153 0.273 7.9
Kris Dunn Providence So 1123 0.269 7.6
Drew Brandon Eastern Washington Sr 1139 0.252 7.2
Cameron Payne Murray State So 1126 0.250 7.0
Roderick Bobbitt Hawaii Jr 1120 0.236 6.6
Pierria Henry Charlotte Sr 1003 0.261 6.5
Levi Randolph Alabama Sr 1200 0.216 6.5
D'Angelo Russell Ohio State Fr 1188 0.217 6.4
Alex Caruso Texas A&M Jr 1038 0.248 6.4
Jake Bittle South Dakota State Jr 1019 0.251 6.4
Marcus Paige North Carolina Jr 1255 0.187 5.9
Chris Fowler Central Michigan Jr 1093 0.212 5.8
Ky Madden Arkansas Sr 978 0.237 5.8
Melo Trimble Maryland Fr 1151 0.197 5.7
Dylan Cox Army Jr 834 0.272 5.7
Kaheem Ransom Sam Houston State Sr 1004 0.221 5.6
Luke Roh Colgate Sr 1084 0.199 5.4
Stanley Johnson Arizona Fr 1081 0.196 5.3
Shaquille Harrison Tulsa Jr 1069 0.196 5.2
Jonathan Octeus Purdue Sr 977 0.214 5.2
Trevor Lacey North Carolina State Jr 1256 0.165 5.2
Damion Lee Drexel Jr 1029 0.201 5.2

Point Guards

Name Team Year MP WP40 Wins
T.J. McConnell Arizona Sr 1158 0.330 9.6
Jalan West Northwestern State Jr 1104 0.337 9.3
Speedy Smith Louisiana Tech Sr 1191 0.289 8.6
Fred Van Vleet Wichita State Jr 1104 0.293 8.1
Tyus Jones Duke Fr 1322 0.239 7.9
Kevin Pangos Gonzaga Sr 1278 0.239 7.6
Nimrod Hilliard IV North Carolina Central Sr 1097 0.252 6.9
Reece Chamberlain Belmont Sr 1031 0.265 6.8
Tyler Strange Gardner-Webb Sr 1200 0.221 6.6
Mikh McKinney Sacramento State Sr 1183 0.216 6.4
Brett Comer Florida Gulf Coast Sr 1054 0.238 6.3
Demetrius Jackson Notre Dame So 1318 0.185 6.1
Kahlil Felder Oakland So 1272 0.192 6.1
Josh Gasser Wisconsin Sr 1320 0.181 6.0
Will Cummings Temple Sr 1224 0.192 5.9
Johnathan Jordan Texas A&M-CC Sr 1219 0.192 5.9
Dre Wills Vermont So 927 0.251 5.8
Derek Jackson Kent State Sr 1181 0.191 5.6
Shannon Scott Ohio State Sr 1068 0.210 5.6
Christopher Hyder Southern Jr 1019 0.219 5.6
Wade Baldwin IV Vanderbilt Fr 1009 0.218 5.5
Yogi Ferrell Indiana Jr 1186 0.184 5.4
Alec Wintering Portland So 1064 0.204 5.4
Ryan Boatright Connecticut Sr 1216 0.178 5.4
Mike Talley Eastern Michigan Sr 1026 0.210 5.4

Notes

As I said before posting all these numbers – thanks again Dave! – these are not written in stone. Things like age, height, strength of schedule, etc., can impact how a player looks. Smart people like Arturo Galletti and Layne Vashro have made models that attempt to incorporate such things. And in the end, what gets players drafted will tend towards the more "conventional" stats (i.e. points and being on a winning team). That said, the players above have performed very well in what is basically the NBA's minor league. On draft night, many teams will be looking for new players, and here is a good place to start.

Wait, there's more!

Ari Caroline (@aricaroline), Chief Analytics Officer at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and someone who has also done some amazing basketball research in the past, had some fun research to pass along as well. Below is a graphic showing age-adjusted production per 40 minutes for Draft Express prospects. Other than having Frank Kaminsky a little too low, I think it's an amazing chart.

So there you have it! All the tools you need to look at your favourite team's upcoming draft selections and proclaim "they have all the skills to maybe be a good or bad player in the NBA!"

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