How long has it historically taken to rebuild through the draft? The Suns recently intimated that the process can take between 8-10 years….

I have conducted my own research which I will share with you in an exercise that may support or refute the Suns position, or may just obfuscate the situation even more.

For the purpose of this analysis, the rebuilding period is defined as including the season prior to when the team first drafted in the top 5 and extending to the year before the team made the playoffs in consecutive years. This is an arbitrary set of parameters selected to promote a guideline. As is true with most analysis tools, it is not infallible.

The function of this research is not to be partisan or tendentious, but merely to show how the results unfold under the selected parameters. Please feel free to analyze the data and draw your own conclusions to share in the comments below.

Teams that made it back to the playoffs in consecutive seasons in 1-3 years (including the year they drafted in the top 5) are in green. 4-6 years is yellow. 7-9 years is orange. 10+ years is red. Gray highlights are used to indicate teams which have already been counted (they are not counted multiple times). The rebuilding timeframe is measured from their first top 5 selection.

Trudge on to view a ponderous set of data…

1990

New Jersey Nets

Derrick Coleman

1992

1993

2

Seattle SuperSonics

Gary Payton

1991

1992

1

Denver Nuggets

Chris Jackson

1994

1995

4

Orlando Magic

Dennis Scott

1994

1995

4

Charlotte Hornets

Kendall Gill

1993

1995

1997

1998

7

1991

Charlotte Hornets

Larry Johnson

1993

1995

1997

1998

6

New Jersey Nets

Kenny Anderson

1992

1993

1

Sacramento Kings

Billy Owens

1996

1999

2000

5

Denver Nuggets

Dikembe Mutombo

1994

1995

3

Miami Heat

Steve Smith

1992

1994

1996

1997

5

1992

Orlando Magic

Shaquille O'Neal

1994

1995

2

Charlotte Hornets

Alonzo Mourning

1993

1995

1997

1998

5

Minnesota Timberwolves

Christian Laettner

1997

1998

5

Dallas Mavericks

Jimmy Jackson

2001

2002

9

Denver Nuggets

LaPhonso Ellis

1994

1995

2

1993

Orlando Magic

Chris Webber

1994

1995

1

Philadelphia 76ers

Shawn Bradley

1999

2000

6

Golden State Warriors

Anfernee Hardaway

1994

2007

18

Dallas Mavericks

Jamal Mashburn

2001

2002

8

Minnesota Timberwolves

Isaiah Rider

1997

1998

4

1994

Milwaukee Bucks

Glenn Robinson

1999

2000

5

Dallas Mavericks

JasonKidd

2001

2002

7

Detroit Pistons

Grant Hill

1996

1997

2

Minnesota Timberwolves

Donyell Marshall

1997

1998

3

Washington Bullets

Juwan Howard

1997

2005

2006

11

1995

Golden State Warriors

Joe Smith

2007

Los Angeles Clippers

Antonio McDyess

1997

2006

16

Philadelphia 76ers

Jerry Stackhouse

1999

2000

4

Washington Bullets

Rasheed Wallace

1997

2005

2006

10

Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Garnett

1997

1998

2

1996

Philadelphia 76ers

Allen Iverson

1999

2000

3

Toronto Raptors

Marcus Camby

2000

2001

4

Vancouver Grizzlies

Shareef Abdur-Rahim

2004

2005

8

Milwaukee Bucks

Stephon Marbury

1999

2000

3

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ray Allen

1997

1998

1

1997

San Antonio Spurs

Tim Duncan

1998

1999

1

Philadelphia 76ers

Keith Van Horn

1999

2000

2

Boston Celtics

Chauncey Billups

2002

2003

5

Vancouver Grizzlies

Antonio Daniels

2004

2005

7

Denver Nuggets

Tony Battie

2004

2005

7

1998

Los Angeles Clippers

Michael Olowokandi

2006

Vancouver Grizzlies

Mike Bibby

2004

2005

6

Denver Nuggets

Raef LaFrentz

2004

2005

6

Toronto Raptors

Antawn Jamison

2000

2001

2

Golden State Warriors

Vince Carter

2007

1999

Chicago Bulls

Elton Brand

2005

2006

6

Vancouver Grizzlies

Steve Francis

2004

2005

5

Charlotte Hornets

Baron Davis

2000

2001

1

Los Angeles Clippers

Lamar Odom

2006

Toronto Raptors

Jonathan Bender

2000

2001

1

2000

New Jersey Nets

Kenyon Martin

2002

2003

2

Vancouver Grizzlies

Strmile Swift

2004

2005

4

Los Angeles Clippers

Darius Miles

2006

Chicago Bulls

Marcus Fizer

2005

2006

5

Orlando Magic

Mike Miller

2001

2002

1

2001

Washington Wizards

Kwame Brown

2005

2006

4

Los Angeles Clippers

Tyson Chandler

2006

Atlanta Hawks

Pau Gasol

2008

2009

7

Chicago Bulls

EddyCurry

2005

2006

4

Golden State Warriors

Jason Richardson

2007

2002

Houston Rockets

Yao Ming

2004

2005

2

Chicago Bulls

Jay Williams

2005

2006

3

Golden State Warriors

Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

2007

Memphis Grizzlies

Drew Gooden

2004

2005

2

Denver Nuggets

Nikoloz Tskitishvili

2004

2005

2

2003

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lebron James

2006

2007

3

Detroit Pistons

Darko Milicic

2004

2005

1

Denver Nuggets

Carmelo Anthony

2004

2005

1

Toronto Raptors

ChrisBosh

2007

2008

4

Miami Heat

Dwyane Wade

2004

2005

1

2004

Orlando Magic

Dwight Howard

2007

2008

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Emeka Okafor

2010

7

Chicago Bulls

Ben Gordon

2005

2006

1

Los Angeles Clippers

Shaun Livingston

2006

Washington Wizards

Devin Harris

2005

2006

1

2005

Milwaukee Bucks

Andrew Bogut

2006

5

Atlanta Hawks

Marvin Williams

2008

2009

3

UtahJazz

Deron Williams

2007

2008

2

New Orleans Hornets

Chris Paul

2008

2009

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Raymond Felton

2010

2006

Toronto Raptors

Andrea Bargnani

2007

2008

1

Chicago Bulls

LaMarcus Aldridge

2007

2009

2010

3

Charlotte Bobcats

Adam Morrison

2010

Portland TrailBlazers

Tyrus Thomas

2009

2010

3

Atlanta Hawks

Shelden Williams

2008

2009

2

2007

Portland TrailBlazers

GregOden

2009

2010

2

Seattle SuperSonics

Kevin Durant

2010

2011

3

Atlanta Hawks

AlHorford

2008

2009

1

Memphis Grizzlies

Mike Conley, Jr.

4

Boston Celtics

JeffGreen

2008

2009

1

2008

Chicago Bulls

Derrick Rose

2009

2010

1

Miami Heat

Michael Beasley

2009

2010

1

Minnesota Timberwolves

O. J.Mayo

3

Seattle SuperSonics

Russell Westbrook

2010

2011

2

Memphis Grizzlies

KevinLove

2009

Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin

Memphis Grizzlies

Hasheem Thabeet

2011

Oklahoma City Thunder

James Harden

2010

2011

1

Sacramento Kings

Tyreke Evans

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ricky Rubio

2010

Washington Wizards

John Wall

Philadelphia 76ers

Evan Turner

2011

New Jersey Nets

Derrick Favors

Minnesota Timberwolves

Wesley Johnson

Sacramento Kings

DeMarcus Cousins

2011

Cleveland Cavaliers

Kyrie Irving

Minnesota Timberwolves

Derrick Williams

UtahJazz

Enes Kanter

Cleveland Cavaliers

Tristan Thompson

Toronto Raptors

Jonas Valanciunas

Here are the results of the data:

1-3 years 19

4-6 years 13

7-9 years 6

10+ years 3

Mean 4.6 years

Median 4 years

A couple things of note (please feel free to add to these below):

If one excludes the Clippers, Bullets/Wizards, and Warriors from the analysis, it becomes 50% 1-3 years, 34% 4-6 years, 16% 7-9 years. The mean would then become 3.7 years.

The results don’t include rebuilding efforts from 2009 to current.

What does this data say about the role of management and ownership?

How much of a role does luck play?

What about the opposing position, rebuilding through free agency and trades? Maybe the rebuttal could take a look at teams with 2 straight losing seasons that didn’t make it to the top 5 in the lottery and how they fared in the successive years after that stretch?

So what do you think fellow Brightsiders, is the Suns claim fact or fiction?


Photo

(SB Nation Arizona, Scott Coleman) The Phoenix Suns have plenty of depth in the back court, but that did not stop the team from working out free agent shooting guard Jermaine Taylor on Thursday afternoon. The good guys at Hoops Rumors provided this update on Taylor, who recently signed with a D-League team.

Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld says (via Twitter) the Suns will work out Taylor today, while Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports tweets that the 25-year-old will work out for the Clippers tomorrow.

It is unclear why the Sun would work out Taylor, who only played in 36 games last season with the Kings and Rockets, but they surely had a reason for it.

Here was a bit of news and a scouting report on the 25-year old from Ridiculous Upside:

The 25-year-old Taylor is more of a scoring athlete than the shooting guard he's listed as on the roster, but he certainly showed some flashes of ridiculous upside as he earned eight starts with the Kings last season. He originally signed in China this season, but was cut prior to training camp and hasn't played since.

A final decision on Taylor will likely be made in the coming days and we will keep an eye on it. Be sure to check back for continued coverage.


PHOENIX — As linsane as these past seven games have been for the Knicks’ newest star, it surely seems sacrilegious to compare him to Steve Nash when Mr. Linsanity owns less career starts than...

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If the Suns are going to return to past glory any time soon, they can't afford to make big mistakes with personnel decisions.

The biggest debate on Planet Orange this season hasn't been about the relative merits of the various back up point guard options available to the Phoenix Suns. The discussion this year, once the lockout ended, has been all about keeping Steve Nash versus trading him and the larger issue of how to rebuild this team to it's past glory.

Outside of U.S. Airways Center everyone has an opinion. National pundits and analysts. Local radio jocks. Even those damn "bloggers" with their "blogs" and internets.

It's the primary topic of conversation for every Suns fans -- blow it up and rebuild through the draft or stay the course and trust the front office to make wise decisions with trades, free agent signings and the draft. Needless to say, "trusting the front office" is not something that's going to come easily given the history of Robert Sarver's decisions from selling draft picks to overpaying the wrong guys in the summer of 2010.

Inside of U.S. Airways Center, there's been only silence from the normally visible Robert Sarver and his new media adverse team of Lon Babby and Lance Blanks. Until now.

Sarver and Babby decided to share their plans with respected columnist Paola Boivin of the Arizona Republic. Here's the meat of it:

Phoenix Suns owner Robert Sarver says plan in place to quickly get the team back on competitive level
Blowing up the team is not the direction the Suns want to go. They look at a franchise such as Chicago. The Bulls won six NBA titles -- 1991-93 and 1996-98 -- then posted losing records and missed the playoffs six consecutive seasons. The team didn't return to the conference finals for 13 years.

"Bottom line: There is no tried-and-true formula," Babby said.

Personally, I tend to agree with Babby and Sarver. I've not been a fan of blowing up the Suns, trading Steve Nash, and generally rolling the dice that comes with a rebuild through the draft strategy.

Many of you, however, are passionate advocates for that plan and are rooting for losses so I have a challenge for you to do the research yourself and present a counter to the Suns assertion that "research shows that (blow it up) process can take from eight to 10 years."

We know that it took Sonics/Thunder two seasons between the time they traded their remaining stars (Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis) in the summer of 2007 until they were back in the playoffs in 2009-10 with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

I would argue that nearly everything went right for that team, including Durant "falling" to the second pick and that the more normal course is the Sacramento Kings. They started to re-tool in 2005 when they traded Chris Webber but held off a full "blow it up" until 2008 when they dumped Ron Artest.

Sacramento had made the playoffs for eight-straight seasons before re-tooling for two seasons (06-08) when they were about a .400 win team and then for the last three years they've been horrible with no more than 25 wins in any one season. They are on the upswing now, but it's hard to argue they are very close to being a contender although they could be a playoff team again in a year or two...maybe.

Then again, the Kings stadium and ownership situation has been unique and that perhaps played a roll as well.

The bottom line, as I've said many times before, I'm no fan of "blowing it up" and don't believe that you can win by trying to lose.

I do, however, think that the Suns' assertion that it's an eight to 10 year process is a bit off but I would love to see someone do the leg work of going back through every team over the last 15 years and showing us the data. Any volunteers? Maybe it's a group project with a couple of people work on it at once? Let me know.


PHOENIX — Through two and a half quarters, the Phoenix Suns seemed to be cruising to an easy win on their third consecutive game night behind some torrid shooting and a zone they mixed in to...

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