Marcin Gortat is producing at a high level for the Suns, and at a very reasonable salary.

The NBA All-Star break gives the game's best players a chance to show their stuff on the international stage, the rest of the league's players the opportunity to take a break, and us fans time to contemplate and digest what we've seen from our teams during the first half of the season.

Over the next few days at BSotS, expect extensive analysis of the performance of Suns players so far this season. Who's performing and who isn't? What players have a bright future in Phoenix and which ones will be packing their bags at the end of the season?

Let's tip it off with a look at a measure of salary efficiency, an attempt to gauge how well players are producing commensurate with their salaries by calculating their salary dollars per each 2011-2012 season win share. The win share stat is intended to estimate how an individual player's achievements have contributed to a team's wins.

A full definition of how the stat is calculated can be found here. It isn't a comprehensive measure, but more so than simple stats like points scored or rebounds gathered per game since it includes a player's production in several categories on both ends of the floor.

In a salary cap sport, a measure of this type of player value is critical. Salary resources are limited and must be used wisely to have a successful team.

How do the 2011-2012 Suns players contribute based on their salaries? Who's pulling his weight and who's not?

Follow the jump for more.......

The disclaimer for any statistical measure applies to the following data. They will never tell the whole story and should be used in concert with watching the games to get a full understanding of their meaning. As we'll see below when we dive into these numbers, nobody would rather have Markieff Morris than LeBron James, and nobody thinks Ryan Anderson is a superstar, though the data will suggest each of those things when viewed in a vacuum.

Since I know we all love charts, here's a chart! This is the current Suns roster, their 2011-2012 salaries, total win shares so far and dollars per win share:

Win_shares_chart_suns_medium

(All salaries courtesy of ShamSports.com; all win share data courtesy of BasketballReference.com.)

A few things jump out to me from this list. Morris' 1.1 win shares are pretty good, for a rookie. He's an up and coming player and a bright young hope for the Suns, but he's not one of the team's best players yet. He rates so highly because he's on his rookie contract and makes a salary that is tiny by NBA standards.

Channing Frye rating so high and Grant Hill so low is an indication of how NBA stats still don't measure defensive contributions well enough and therefore overrate scoring. It also tells me that consistency isn't considered, as Frye's hot and cold nature is his biggest flaw. Still, Frye is a solid player, and his $5M+ this year isn't out of line, no matter how fans might curse his name.

Gortat and Dudley produce consistently, and they're both probably underpaid. This is why they're two of the Suns most value trade chips.

A note about why I used total win shares and not win shares per 48 minutes: the point is to measure bottom line production, so only total win shares matter. For example, if Nash and Hill miss games on back to backs because they need additional rest due to age or nagging injuries, that's not their "fault" per se, but this isn't about assigning blame. Production is production. Well, unless players would give back their salary in games they don't play, and that salary wouldn't count against the cap.

To put the Suns players in a bit of context, here's a breakdown of the top 10 win shares in the league so far this season. (Gortat is #20 in the NBA in total win shares.)

Win_shares_chart_league_medium

Is there any amount LeBron James could be paid that would be too much? It's hard to imagine one. Of course, there's that whole "can't win a ring" thing, but that's not going to last forever. There's not a fanbase in the league who wouldn't go nuts at the prospect of LeBron playing on their team. He's easily the league's best player, by any measure.

Kevin Love and James Harden are on their rookie contracts, so of course they provide fantastic value. And Ryan Anderson is.....hey, wait a minute. What the hell is Anderson doing on this list? He's not an All-Star and is only averaging 16 PPG but is doing so with amazing offensive efficiency. Again, win shares don't tell the full story, but Anderson is playing better than most fans realize.

And, just for fun, some highly-paid former Suns:

Win_shares_chart_former_suns_medium

None of these players are having great seasons. Amare Stoudemire has been inconsistent without a viable point guard until recently, and has missed some games due to injury. He's not producing well, and if it's an indication of his inevitable physical decline, does that make anyone less upset that the Suns let him walk? It does for me.

Turkoglu and Joe Johnson are simply overpaid. They're solid contributing players and JJ was selected as an All-Star, but they're both prime examples of players who are taking up too much cap space for what they bring to their teams.

What say you, Suns fans? Is this an illuminating way to look at player value? What stands out to you in this data?

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The rest of the NBA, like many Phoenix Suns fans, are calling for the franchise to free Steve Nash. Those wishes stem from the understanding that owner Robert Sarver and company need to rebuild and...

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If you aren't into statistics, this post probably isn't for you.

I view basketball as a game of 3 phases - offense, defense, and rebounding. Today, I had some extra time, and decided to try and translate that view of basketball into some clean-looking statistics. I've come up with 2 statistical measures of my own creation. I'm calling them "Points Created" and "NOSE." I'll explain below.

Now, there are two types of basketball stats - those that are driven by productivity (e.g. points per game), and those that are driven by efficiency (e.g. points per possession). Lately, the trend has been towards the latter, so I decided to buck the trend and go for the former. All of these stats are based on production per 36 minutes. I like this measure, as it approximates starters minutes for a good player.

Offense

We already have Points / 36 minutes and Assists / 36 minutes, courtesy of basketball-reference.com, but I wanted to be able to measure players based on their ability to CREATE offense, not just catch passes under the hoop and make wide-open stuffs.

To do this, I pulled in another stat available on hoopdata.com, abbreviated as %AST, which gives the % of shots for a given player which were the result of another players assist. In other words, they didn't create the shot - they just finished it. Then, with a little multiplication and subtraction, I split the point totals into two categories - assisted and un-assisted.

Next, I assigned a value of 2 points to every assist a player made. Finally, I added each players un-assisted points to this total, to create a statistic showing points created by that player. I define my new statistic, Points Created, thusly:

CREATED = [PTS - (PTS * %AST)] + (2 * AST)

Without further ado, here are your 2012 Phoenix Suns, by this measurement. Keep in mind these numbers are per 36 minutes, so they project totals as if all players had the same number of minutes.

TEAM Player POS PTS

UNAST

PTS

AST

PTS

AST CREATED
PHO Steve Nash PG 15.9 13.1 2.8 12.4 37.92
PHO Sebastian Telfair PG 11.5 9.0 2.5 4.7 18.37
PHO Ronnie Price PG 8.9 5.7 3.2 5.0 15.70
PHO Hakim Warrick PF 16.4 7.7 8.7 2.0 11.74
PHO Michael Redd SG 19.1 6.2 12.9 1.8 9.85
PHO Grant Hill SF 12.4 3.4 9.0 2.6 8.65
PHO Shannon Brown SG 15.3 5.4 9.9 1.5 8.45
PHO Jared Dudley SF 13.9 3.6 10.3 2.1 7.77
PHO Markieff Morris PF 14.0 4.1 9.9 1.8 7.66
PHO Josh Childress SF 7.1 2.7 4.4 2.4 7.46
PHO Channing Frye C 14.0 3.7 10.3 1.6 6.85
PHO Robin Lopez C 12.4 5.1 7.3 0.7 6.47
PHO Marcin Gortat C 17.0 3.4 13.6 1.0 5.38

No surprise, Steve on top by a huge margin here, and the other 2 point guards 2nd and 3rd, trailing by a wide margin. I was a little surprised by how poorly Marcin scores in my metric, but on second thought, that also seems to pass the eyeball test - most of his points come off of feeds by Steve.

Also, I didn't just do this for the Suns, I did it for all NBA players. Not surprising, Steve Nash is still on top of the list. Here's a top 20:

TEAM Player POS PTS

UNAST

PTS

AST

PTS

AST CREATED
PHO Steve Nash PG 15.9 13.1 2.8 12.4 37.92
NYK Jeremy Lin PG 22.8 19.0 3.8 8.9 36.84
CHI Derrick Rose PG 22.4 17.4 5.0 7.8 33.05
SAS Tony Parker PG 20.4 15.7 4.7 8.3 32.33
LAC Chris Paul PG 18.5 15.3 3.2 8.5 32.28
OKC Russell Westbrook PG 24.2 18.9 5.3 5.7 30.35
MIA LeBron James SF 27.1 16.6 10.5 6.7 29.99
NJN Deron Williams PG 21.4 13.4 8.0 7.9 29.15
BOS Rajon Rondo PG 14.4 10.4 4.0 9.3 29.03
WAS John Wall PG 16.4 13.6 2.8 7.4 28.44
CLE Kyrie Irving PG 21.7 15.5 6.2 5.8 27.12
CLE Ramon Sessions PG 14.7 10.3 4.4 8.1 26.50
MIN Ricky Rubio PG 11.8 8.7 3.1 8.7 26.11
TOR Jose Calderon PG 11.8 7.3 4.5 9.2 25.72
MIA Dwyane Wade SG 25.2 14.9 10.3 5.4 25.69
HOU Kyle Lowry PG 15.9 9.9 6.0 7.8 25.46
NYK Carmelo Anthony SF 22.8 16.3 6.5 4.5 25.32
DEN Andre Miller PG 12.7 8.4 4.3 8.4 25.21
LAL Kobe Bryant SG 27.3 15.8 11.5 4.7 25.21

I restricted the listing to players who've played more than 300 minutes. I was a little surprised by the rookies Rubio and Irving making the list, as well as that guy sitting at #2 on the list.

Defense

What I'd like to do here is to take a measurement of PTS Against and AST Against, and compare it to an average of averages for opposing players at the named position, netting out to show either that a player is allowing more or less productivity than their opposition's average.

Only problem is, I can't find anywhere out there in internet land where I can find any sort of PTS against or AST against for individual players or positions. Defensive statistics appear to be strictly a TEAM-only affair, at this point. NBA.com has a neat feature that allows you to get player versus player head to head stats, but that's the closest I could come, and like everything at NBA.com, it's all graphics and moving parts, and will take forever to get any real information out of. If you know where such stats might be kept, let me know. I'd like to do this section properly.

Change of Possession

This originally started out as "rebounding," the 3rd phase of the game, but I expanded it to include all the counting stats that enumerate a change in possession. I define the statistic thusly:

NOSE = REB + STL + CHG - TO - (FGA - FGM)

Essentially, then, this stat adds up all the times that a player gains possession of the ball for his team (REB, STL, CHG), and deducts from it all the times he lost possession of the ball for his team (TO, Missed Shot). The difference represents a snapshot of whether a player is adding or subtracting from the number of possessions his team has to work with, and shows the extent to which he makes that happen.

Why call it NOSE? It's short for "Nose for the Ball," which I think sums up this statistic perfectly. Also, it let's me say fun things, like, "Marcin Gortat has the biggest NOSE on the Phoenix Suns:"

TEAM Player POS FG FGA TRB STL TOV CHG NOSE
PHO Marcin Gortat C 7.2 13 11.1 0.8 1.7 0.69 5.1
PHO Josh Childress SF 3.4 7.4 7.4 1.1 0.8 0.42 4.1
PHO Robin Lopez C 4.4 10.8 8.7 0.7 2 0.18 1.2
PHO Markieff Morris PF 5.2 13.1 8.6 1.4 1.7 0.62 1.0
PHO Channing Frye C 5.2 13 8.6 1 1.3 0.23 0.7
PHO Jared Dudley SF 5.1 10.8 4.8 1.2 1.3 0.26 -0.7
PHO Ronnie Price PG 3.2 8.7 3.6 2.2 3.5 1.07 -2.1
PHO Grant Hill SF 4.8 11.6 4.5 0.9 1.9 0.55 -2.8
PHO Hakim Warrick PF 5.9 13.1 5.9 0.3 2.6 0.12 -3.5
PHO Steve Nash PG 6.2 11.5 3.1 0.8 4.1 0.30 -5.2
PHO Shannon Brown SG 5.8 15 3.3 1.6 2.1 0.21 -6.2
PHO Sebastian Telfair PG 4.3 13.1 2.7 1.8 2.9 0.31 -6.9
PHO Michael Redd SG 6.5 17.2 3.4 0.7 2.1 0.00 -8.7

Higher numbers are better, but a negative NOSE is nothing to be ashamed of, as the mean for this statistic would actually be in negative numbers (about -2). For instance, Jared Dudley's -0.7 is actually above average for his position, showing that he has a 'nose for the ball.'

NOSE appears to vary inversely with CREATE - the more one creates offense, the more likely they are to rack up the missed shots and turnovers, thus ending up with a smaller NOSE.

Following is a top 20 for the league:

TEAM Player POS FG FGA TRB STL TOV CHG NOSE
LAC Reggie Evans PF 1.2 2.6 12.7 1.5 1.7 0.09 11.2
POR Marcus Camby C 2.5 6.2 14.3 1.3 1.8 0.25 10.4
IND Jeff Foster C 2.5 4.7 11.4 2 1.7 0.30 9.8
TOR Aaron Gray C 3.1 6.5 13.7 1.4 2.5 0.14 9.3
WAS Ronny Turiaf C 1.9 1.9 7.7 3.9 3.9 1.26 9.0
GSW Andris Biedrins C 2.4 3.7 9.5 1.2 0.7 0.00 8.7
DET Ben Wallace C 1.2 3.2 9.2 1.8 1.1 0.68 8.6
CHI Omer Asik C 3.2 6.6 13.3 1.2 2.9 0.22 8.4
NYK Tyson Chandler C 4.2 6 10.3 1 1.6 0.42 8.3
CLE Anderson Varejao PF 5.2 10.2 13.2 1.6 2.1 0.55 8.3
DEN Kosta Koufos C 5 8.7 12.3 1.5 2.3 0.19 8.0
DEN Chris Andersen C 4.7 8.3 10.8 1.4 1.3 0.50 7.8
LAC DeAndre Jordan C 4.1 6.3 10.8 0.6 1.5 0.09 7.8
DAL Brendan Haywood C 3.6 6.6 11 0.7 1.5 0.26 7.5
DEN Kenneth Faried F 5.8 10.7 13.1 0.9 1.9 0.18 7.4
ORL Dwight Howard C 6.9 12.7 14.4 1.3 3.1 0.06 6.9
MIA Udonis Haslem PF 3.2 7.7 11.1 0.8 1.5 0.81 6.7
PHI Tony Battie C 2.5 5.7 9.7 0.5 0.5 0.18 6.7
CHI Joakim Noah C 4.2 8.5 11.8 0.8 1.9 0.14 6.5
TOR Jamaal Magloire C 1.3 4.1 10.8 0.1 2.1 0.41 6.4

Lastly, NOSE should not be confused for a defensive statistic. It strictly measures how many "extra" possessions a player gives his team (or uses up in futility).

Hope you enjoyed this. I had fun putting it together.


PHOENIX — Entering tonight’s game the Phoenix Suns seemed positioned for a run out of the West’s dungeon, at least so much as that can be the case for a squad sitting in 13th in its conference...

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Sometimes, a photo is worth 1,000 words.

The Suns began Wednesday nights game against the Warriors by attempting to gain victory without scoring many points and abstaining from any semblance of an effective defensive scheme. The result was not positive, as the Golden State Warriors jumped out to a 21-9 first quarter lead. David Lee led a balanced Golden State scoring attack with 13 points. The Warriors would end the quarter shooting over 60% from the field, and a season high 39 points. You read that correctly: 39 points, season high, Golden State Warriors (12-17).

The Suns bench players led a 12-5 run in the second to chip into the Warrior lead. But Golden State regrouped, while the Suns played in a lethargic, disinterested fashion. There were plenty of missed shots, turnovers, and poor defense to spread around. A late 7-0 run in the third by the starters lessened a brief 21 point deficit, and the Suns trailed 59-45 at the break.

Grant Hill led a third quarter charge as the Suns went on a 10-2 run. Channing Frye hit two straight 3's, and the Suns pulled within 7 with 3 minutes left. Another 7-2 run later and the Sun had awoken from their early game slumber, outscoring Golden State 34-24 in the third.

The Suns spent the first 8 minutes of the fourth quarter chipping away at the Warrior lead. A Gortat lay in with 4 minutes left forged a tie and a Jared Dudley finish off a Grant Hill inbound lob punctuated a 10-2 run which led to the first Suns lead of the game at 96-94.

After some back and forth that featured a spectacular Channing Frye offensive rebound/jam, the Suns had the ball down 104-102 with 19 ticks left. Grant Hill hit a driving layup to tie it up at 104 with 11 seconds left. On the ensuing play, Monta Ellis dribbled himself into what usually is Grant Hill defensive oblivion. As the clock ticked down, Ellis turned around and hit the game winner with Hill in his face.

And so ended the game, as did the first half of this season, in disappointing, heartbreaking fashion.

Bullets

  • Channing Frye played a nice game with 22 points and 9 rebounds, although he did miss what could have been the game winner. But it was a tough shot with a defender in his face. Reminds me of what Ellis did.
  • Marcin Gortat woke up from a first half slumber to register 21 points and 15 boards
  • Both Jared Dudley and Grant Hill played strong games on both sides of the court
  • Steve Nash wasn't himself tonight, yet still almost managed a triple double with 7 points, 9 assists and 5 rebounds.
  • The Suns gave away 9 turnovers in the first half and 1 in the second half
  • In the first half, the Warriors converted 9 Sun turnovers into 13 points.
  • The Suns shot 4-19 from beyond the arc
  • The Suns second unit players registered a +15
  • David Lee appeared headed for a monster game, but was essentially neutralized in the 2nd half. Yes he scored 22 but he only managed 4 rebounds.
  • Hats off to Nate Robinson, coming in for Stephen Curry and doing his Mugsy Bogues impersonation. 14 points, 5 assists, and some timely jumpers that killed the Suns.

Final Words

The starters came out flat, gave up 39 points. After that, the Suns won every quarter, but still couldn't seal the deal even after clawing back to a 104-104 tie with 11 seconds left. Normally a team can survive one bad quarter, but the first in this game was exceedingly bad for the Suns.

And what can we say about the final make by Ellis? Nothing more anyone could have done. Grant Hill is a great player, a great man, and a great freakin' NBA defender.

Enjoy the break people, perhaps we all need one.


Final - 2.22.2012 1 2 3 4 Total
Golden State Warriors 39 20 24 23 106
Phoenix Suns 22 23 34 25 104

Complete Coverage >


[Note by Seth Pollack, 02/22/12 10:25 PM MST ]

Alvin Gentry was as mad after this game as I've seen him before. Some choice quotes:

"The game was lost in the first ten minutes of the game. We got an opportunity to do something good and we come out like that is just ridiculous. It's unfair to the fans in the stands. The way we approached the game sucked...I am disgusted with the way we played and I'm disgusted with the fact that we got a chance to end the break on something upbeat and positive and instead we just walk though the first ten minutes of the game and that cost us."

"We have to decide what kind of team we want to be. Do we want to be a tease where we win a couple of games then we decide not to play the first ten minutes or are we going to be a team that bears down and tries to grind this thing out so we can get back into the playoff race. We have to decide that."

None of the players had any answer as to why things started off so badly. I can tell you that Gentry's sour mood wasn't completely reflected in the locker room.

Here's Alvin...and this doesn't include the first few cuts that include some F-bombs (I didn't get my camera set up in time to catch that).


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