20121206_ajl_as8_121

It was a sleepy game between these two teams, neither coming out with a lot of grit or tight execution. They traded little runs of shot-making and longer runs of shot-missing.

Neither team was happy with a big lead, or even a small one for that matter, with 12 lead changes and 8 ties.

Eventually the Mavericks pulled away on better outside shooting. They scored all but 26 of their points on jumpers outside the paint, while the Suns missed shots both short and long without favoritism.

Goran Dragic led the Suns with 19 points, 9 assists and 8 rebounds (though only 2, 0 and 0 in the fourth). Shannon Brown had 20 points on 7 of 11 shooting. Jared Dudley had 17 points (9 in the first quarter). Luis Scola had 18 points and 8 rebounds.

Ultimately it was Dallas' night punctuated by Dragic's frustrated-filled technical foul

The Suns high water mark was a 10-point third quarter lead (71-61), only to go into the offensive tank and allow a 13-4 run to end the quarter with only a 1 point lead (75-74).

Michael Beasley, despite playing better lately, has not had 2 good shooting games in a row. Tonight he missed 11 of his 13 shots. Hunter stuck with him a long time, but finally pulled him out at the 6-minute mark of the 4th.

Goran Dragic was the only Suns standout for much of the game, with 17 points, 8 assists and 8 rebounds in the first three quarters. Unfortunately, despite being set up for the Suns first triple-double of the season, Dragic did little in the 4th.

The Suns may have set a record for misses inside three feet tonight (12 in the first three quarters). Marcin Gortat was clearly still recovering from food poisoning, which held him out of practice yesterday and probably cost him a few precious pounds of sand in his bucket. He missed bunny after bunny, though he wasn't alone. Gortat was clearly not himself, finishing with 16 and 7 but he should have done much better against Elton Brand.

Goran Dragic played great in the first half, with 10 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds in the first quarter alone. Jared Dudley was on fire as well, making 4 of 5 shots for 9 points in the first but then cooling off in the second on 0-2 shooting.

Dallas kept it close with hot shooting (more than 50% in the first quarter) including 4 of 6 3-point attempts, and both teams scored a good offensive quarter: 31-29 Suns.

The second quarter started out as a slugfest, or the guys just stopping making many baskets on either team. The Suns took an early 7-point lead on the back of nice passing by rookie Kendall Marshall and shot-making by SG Shannon Brown. But Dallas came back while the Suns totally cooled off.

The story of the game.

You wouldn't think Dallas was poor on the road, would you?

20120303_pjc_aw5_102

Rumors are swirling that the Phoenix Suns are interested in trading for Josh Smith. These rumors started in 2004 and have come to a head only yesterday in a report by Alex Kennedy. While John Gambodoro tweeted that these rumors are false, Suns fans have been on the Smith bandwagon so long it almost seems as if Smith has been a member of the Suns his entire career.

Smith has long been a Suns fan favorite for his high-flying aerial assault combined with his hard-nosed defensive ability. The Suns traditionally have lacked the gritty, bad-boy mentality and Smith certainly could bring this to the franchise in one swooping dunk. The recent rumor probably served to get his fan-base in Phoenix excited only to ultimately be disappointed that it won't actually happen.

"Why?" you say.

Well, let's break this down logically from both sides.

For Atlanta, they have made the classic Sarver [defined as holding on to an asset past the point of having any leverage]. The Hawks braintrust refused to trade Smith over the past few years, mostly because they have produced enough wins to be enticing, but not enough to get over the hump.

Last season, Smith had a career year, producing almost 20/10 per game and a career high in assists. A wise man would have seen the writing on the wall at this point in Smith's career and traded him at his peak. Instead, they chose to stay the course with Smith because they were winning, and chose to find a way to dump the terrible Joe Johnson contract.

Now, Smith is in the last half of the last year of his contract and ATL finds themselves in a pickle. Smith certainly has value around the league and a large number of teams will show Smith some love. I also believe there are a few that would willingly overpay him, possibly making him a MAX player. Atlanta now finds themselves in the same jam that the Suns will be in next season with Marcin Gortat - a good player with value who will command more money than they are worth from another team, who is more than likely to go without the team receiving anything back.

For the teams figuring out how to deal with a guy who might leave, it is about extracting the most value from the situation when you have little leverage. For the team interested in trading for or signing a player, it is about waiting it out and leveraging the other team's impatience. For Atlanta, they made the mistake of letting it get to this point and now have a desperate situation in hand.

The problem is that Smith believes he is a MAX player. Much like Amar'e felt in his final season of his Suns contract, Smith has this firm belief that what he has done [and can still do] in his career warrants being paid as if he is a top 10 talent. Yet from outside of the inside of Josh Smith's head, that production just doesn't seem to add up to what a team would need to pay him. Smith is eligible as a nine year veteran for a raise equaling 30% of the cap [expected to be $59 million]. In a sign and trade deal, he can get a four year deal starting at $17.7 million in his first season and a maximum of 4.5% raises each year. This equates to a four year $76 million contract [rounding up].

While some suggest that Smith is a franchise alpha, I would scoff at that description. Josh has managed a consistent level of play over his nine year career - to his credit. But that nine years show a track record of exactly who he is. Smith is basically a 16 point, eight rebound guy who takes a bit too many threes, but does bring a defensive presence. I am not sure how anyone can mistake that for a MAX franchise player.

The table below shows the top 70 salaries in the NBA for the 2013-14 season.

Table_medium

At a maximum salary, Smith's deal would place him at 14th in the league between Rose and Durant. Um, something is not right about that statement. Other than Rudy Gay being way overpaid, I am sure you could say that Smith is not in the company of any of the players above him. But looking at the next 20 or so players, it is hard to say that Smith is their equal as well. Sure, some guys are overpaid [as a result of getting deals done before the CBA - Okafor, Boozer, and Deng to an extent]. But are you going to seriously argue that Smith is better than David Lee right now. Is James Harden $4 million less of a player than Josh? How do the Spurs get away with paying Tony Parker $12.5 M? The fact is, Smith is already overpaid at $13.2 M. His teammate, Al Horford, is making $12 million, and if money were eliminated from the equation, who would you rather have?

So from the money perspective alone, maxing out Josh Smith is equivalent to maxing out Joe Johnson - DUMB! While I understand there are teams that get desperate and overreach on players, usually you want to do that on guys that are young, haven't put a lot of miles on their body, and have a track record of improvement leading up to the deal so you can justify that the player will have huge upside. Smith is not that player. He is younger, but has already played nine years. He has steadily put up the same production for the bulk of those years and there is absolutely no reason to think that will change for the better.

The rumor with the Suns was that it would have to include Gortat, Dudley, Beasley and a couple of picks. None of that makes sense. Yeah, I can see throwing Gortat to the wind here, but why would you throw in Dudley? Why would anyone think putting Beasley in the deal makes it workable from ATL's end [they don't want him, do they?]? A couple of picks? What?

Smith is an unrestricted free agent in approximately three months. If you are going to sign him to a maximum deal, why would you use assets that could be used in other deals for a guy you could outright sign this summer? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep all of those assets [unless they really want Beasley - sure, we will do that], sign Smith to a max deal [although I wouldn't, but let's just suppose here we did], make a few other moves to get some wing help and draft some young guys for the future. Certainly adding Smith, trading Gortat for something, and drafting a couple of lotto picks turns our fortunes around much better than trading everything we have for a maxed out Smith.

From ATL's standpoint, it is obvious they want value for Smith. Yet they have little ability to get much more than some cap relief and possibly a thrown in player/pick. Even if they could extract Gortat from this, why would they want Beasley?

Basically, none of this makes any sense to me. If Gambodoro is right - the Suns want none of this. If Josh Smith is a target, the Suns should throw something at him this summer, but shouldn't overreach. Adding Smith would be nice [at say, $8-12 M over 4 years], but maxing him out only kills our ability to do anything real down the road.

Poll
Do you think the Suns should pursue Smith?

  393 votes | Results

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A win tonight by the Phoenix Suns would put them at 4-2 under Lindsey Hunter. Sure, three of those wins would be against losing teams, but you have to play the schedule in front of you.

But tonight won't be easy. In fact, it's not even likely.

The Dallas Mavericks have the Suns number. They just beat the Phoenix Suns last Sunday night in Dallas (110-95) as well as in Phoenix in December (97-94) and have won 10 of the past 11 meetings overall.

Any way you slice it, the Suns have not played well enough against the Mavericks lately. They just haven't.

Could tonight be any different?

Well, it's possible that Dirk Nowitzki won't play due a strained right adductor muscle.

"It's just Father Time, bro," Nowitzki said. "Stuff happens. I never pulled a muscle in my whole career. There's always a first one."

O.J. Mayo is still the Mavericks' leading scorer at 17 points per game.

Shawn Marion is reprising his old self lately by going for 18 and 17 in last night's last-second loss to Golden State.

Dallas is coming off a back to back, so they might be tired.

Check out the Mavericks stats here.


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
O.J. Mayo 41 35.8 6.4 14.0 45.7 2.1 5.0 42.5 3.3 3.8 85.9 0.6 3.1 3.8 4.1 2.8 1.3 0.3 2.5 18.2
Dirk Nowitzki 14 29.1 5.1 12.4 41.0 1.1 3.1 37.2 2.7 3.5 77.6 0.6 4.9 5.5 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 14.0
Darren Collison 40 31.3 4.6 9.6 48.1 0.6 1.6 35.9 3.1 3.6 88.0 0.2 2.6 2.8 5.1 2.3 1.5 0.0 1.8 13.0
Chris Kaman 39 24.3 5.6 11.1 50.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.7 79.4 1.6 4.7 6.3 0.9 1.7 0.3 0.9 2.3 12.6
Vince Carter 41 24.8 4.2 10.1 41.8 1.8 4.9 36.8 2.0 2.4 81.8 0.6 3.4 4.0 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.6 2.8 12.3
Shawn Marion 34 29.8 4.4 9.2 48.2 0.3 0.9 32.3 1.2 1.4 83.3 2.2 5.9 8.1 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.7 10.4
Elton Brand 37 21.8 3.2 6.6 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.4 80.4 1.9 4.5 6.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 2.8 7.4
Brandan Wright 26 15.9 3.3 5.2 63.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 60.0 1.0 2.0 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.8 7.4
Jae Crowder 37 17.5 2.0 5.2 37.6 0.9 2.8 31.7 0.8 1.4 60.0 0.5 1.9 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.8 5.6
Dominique Jones 24 12.8 1.4 4.1 34.3 0.0 0.4 11.1 1.3 1.9 65.2 0.7 1.0 1.8 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 4.1
Dahntay Jones 41 13.6 1.0 3.0 35.5 0.2 0.8 24.2 1.3 1.7 78.3 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.6 3.6
Bernard James 21 10.9 1.3 2.7 49.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.1 66.7 1.3 2.0 3.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.1 3.4
Mike James 6 10.5 1.2 3.8 30.4 0.3 1.3 25.0 0.3 0.7 50.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 3.0
Rodrigue Beaubois 30 11.7 1.1 3.5 31.1 0.3 1.4 23.8 0.4 0.6 76.5 0.2 0.9 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 3.0
Jared Cunningham 8 3.1 0.8 1.8 42.9 0.3 0.4 66.7 0.3 0.3 100.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.0


And check out the Suns stats:


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Goran Dragic 39 32.2 5.0 11.2 44.7 1.3 3.9 31.8 2.7 3.8 71.1 0.7 2.1 2.8 6.1 2.3 1.5 0.3 2.6 14.0
Luis Scola 41 27.6 5.6 11.8 47.0 0.0 0.2 10.0 2.0 2.5 76.9 2.0 4.3 6.4 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 3.2 13.1
Shannon Brown 41 27.2 4.8 11.3 42.1 0.9 3.1 28.6 2.0 2.3 84.2 0.7 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.1 0.3 1.7 12.3
Jared Dudley 39 30.8 4.4 9.0 48.3 1.5 3.8 39.3 1.9 2.3 82.0 1.2 2.5 3.6 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.1 1.6 12.1
Marcin Gortat 41 32.2 5.0 9.4 52.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.5 66.7 2.2 6.7 9.0 1.3 1.6 0.7 1.9 2.2 11.6
Michael Beasley 37 21.5 3.7 9.9 37.6 0.7 2.1 31.6 1.3 1.8 72.3 0.9 2.7 3.6 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 9.4
Markieff Morris 41 20.2 3.2 7.8 41.1 0.5 1.6 28.8 0.8 1.2 67.3 1.6 2.8 4.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 2.5 7.7
Jermaine O`Neal 32 15.6 2.5 5.4 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.7 77.8 0.9 3.2 4.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 1.2 2.1 6.4
Sebastian Telfair 40 18.1 2.2 5.7 38.3 1.0 2.5 39.6 1.0 1.3 78.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 1.9 6.3
P.J. Tucker 39 20.6 2.0 4.4 45.9 0.2 0.7 33.3 0.6 1.0 61.5 1.2 2.3 3.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.8 4.8
Wesley Johnson 16 7.4 0.9 3.0 31.3 0.4 1.3 33.3 0.1 0.2 66.7 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 2.4
Luke Zeller 11 3.3 0.6 1.6 38.9 0.1 0.3 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4
Diante Garrett 6 5.0 0.3 0.8 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 50.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.8
Kendall Marshall 11 4.6 0.3 1.0 27.3 0.1 0.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6


For more Suns coverage, check out the Bright Side home page. We're KILLING IT lately!

Time: 7 p.m. MST TV: FSAZ Lindsey Hunter calls the Phoenix Suns a work in progress and coming off a comeback victory against the Los Angeles Lakers two days ago, the team has a good reason to be...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]
UPDATE: The video has been pulled from YouTube, most likely due to rights issues related to the music used in the production. At least we got to see it for a few hours.

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