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Sometimes things are not what they appear to be on the surface. For example, I often come across as acerbic, brooding and negative, but in real life... ok, bad example. Maybe this is a better one (thanks to the Gumpster). Take one of those boxes of assorted chocolates. At first glance most people would think - "Yum. Chocolate.", but then... by some cruel, insidious prank... it turns out some of the pieces are filled with some noisome concoction that I wouldn't feed my dog. Others are still perfectly good. Some are even absolutely delectable. But it's hard to know what you're going to get.

Such is the dilemma of the NBA draft. It's hard to know for sure how things will turn out. Sometimes there appear to be sure things, see James, Lebron, but other times unforeseen pitfalls still derail great expectations, see Oden, Greg. Now that we factor in that educated guesses are still wrong to a certain degree, how can we quantify that degree?

Let's take a look at 10 recent years of lottery picks (2002 -2011).

Bust_medium

*Player position was determined by using the position with the most career games played based on basketball-reference.com

Here's what I used as my general criteria:

  • #1 picks need to be franchise players
  • #2 - #5 need to be above average starters and/or all-stars
  • #6 - #10 need to be below average starters or 6th man type players
  • #11 - #15 need to be productive role players (7th or 8th guy consistently for their careers
It's hard to set a criteria based on X number of all-NBA teams or all-star game appearances, since I'm looking at some players who don't have significant tenure and I'm trying to analyze recent trends. Likewise, a specific % of starts is hard to use for the same players since lots of players come off the bench early in their careers.

The numbers at the bottom of the table above are the success rates of picks (not busts). There is a 92/140 = a 65.71 % chance of drafting at least a player that is an effective contributor at the NBA level. That number is actually a little bit higher, too, because I have included players such as Andrea Bargnani as busts, due to the fact that he was a #1 overall and turned out to be nowhere near a franchise player (although that was a putrid draft class).

That being considered, there may be a few discrepancies between people on the list I constructed. But based on my reasoning here are the numbers for player busts:

Bust potential by position:
  • Point guards = 19.23%
  • Shooting guards = 23.81%
  • Small forwards = 37.93%
  • Power forwards = 44.12%
  • Centers = 40%

What does this show? That guards are the safest picks and forwards and centers are almost identically riskier picks. In fact, it's about twice as likely for a forward or center to bust.

So... fact or fiction - centers are the most likely to bust... Fiction.

What this illustrates is that once a player gets to about 6' 7" or above they are equally likely to bust.

What does this mean to the Suns heading into the draft? Don't shy away from picking a center in the lottery if he's #1 on your BPA list.

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The names may not jump off the page as top level or highly rated prospects, but today the Phoenix Suns did their due diligence bringing in some options for the No. 30 and 57 picks respectively. Nobody in this group projects to be a superstar talent, but all have specific roles they can play at the next level.

Today's group included C.J. Leslie (No. 37 on the Big Board), Matthew Dellavedova (69), Phil Pressey (71), Rodney McGruder (NA), and Ian Hummer (NA).

Read into this as you will, but Korie Lucious worked out with the Phoenix Suns for the second straight day. There is that.

Other than Lucious being there a second straight day, which is the most visits (two) a player can have with a team the other interesting faces were Kendall Marshall and Diante Garrett. They seemed to be there helping in the workout to give the team more bodies.

This workout was likely designed to get another look at Leslie, who at the NBA Draft Combine, impressed the team a lot. He is a tweener, but has the measurables and athleticism to play the four, but not the strength. His college career was defined by not meeting his full potential and this is his chance to right the wrongs so far. At No. 30 Leslie is a quality pick-up adding athleticism and another lane filler on the fast-break.

In college Leslie had some issues with his coach about his role and the way the team used him on the offensive end. They may have been overblown, but that adds to why Leslie never was able to reach his maximum potential in college. Leslie sees himself as a basketball player, not a three or a four, but a versatile player that will have his role defined by his team.

Of the two point guards -- Dellavedova and Pressey -- they each bring in the pass first mentality.

Dellavedova is a lethal shooter that can run an offense. He has great size and feel for the game. Pressey has the same feel, but not the size or shooting. He was erratic in pressure situations at Missouri as well bringing up questions of his ability to lead a team at the next level. Both can be third point guards on a team and have the potential to run a second unit.

Here is a scouting take on the group:

  • C.J. Leslie N.C. State -- Junior forward: Full Scouting Report
  • Matthew Dellavedova -- Saint Mary's -- Senior point guard: Full Scouting Report
  • Phil Pressey -- Missouri -- Junior point guard: Full Scouting Report
  • Rodney McGruder -- Kansas State -- Senior wing: Over the past two seasons he came into his own as a scorer and leader. He can create offense off the bounce, attacks the rim, and can shoot the NBA three with rhythm. Good size for a two, but lacks elite athleticism.
  • Korie Lucious -- Iowa State -- Senior guard: Three years at Michigan State as a role playing guard known for his defensive abilities and seeing the floor. He does not have great size or burst, but can shoot the ball.
  • Ian Hummer -- Princeton -- Senior forward: A consistent scorer, efficient, and played mostly in the post in college. Undersized for the NBA four and lacks the perimeter skills and shooting to be a three.
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The Phoenix Suns have held star-studded workouts the past couple of days. You might even say that the talent walking around US Airways Arena on Wednesday and Thursday was greater than any collection of talent in Suns uniforms in a long while (though you'd be wrong).

"A little inexperienced, maybe," Hornacek quipped when asked about that.

Yet, the potential is there. The Suns would be fortunate to have any of the top players on the team next season. The process over the next three weeks is to get to know the guys through group workouts, individual workouts and one-on-one meetings.

All but Nerlens Noel have visited or will soon be visiting Phoenix. And don't count Noel out either. They all know this draft is fluid, and anyone could end up at #5 overall.

Suns head coach Jeff Hornacek has made it clear he likes to see guys compete together. And most of the guys want to compete against each other as well, to raise their draft stock.

Videos: check out Suns.com for videos of each interview (I'm the guy to the left of MCW in his interview)

Why a point guard group?

While PG is the strongest position on the team, that's not saying much when you're the Phoenix Suns. Coming into the 2013-14 season with an underrated Goran Dragic as starter and 22-year old Kendall Marshall as the backup is not good enough to check off the box and look in another direction.

"We're talking that way (point guards) because guys are highly rated as a fifth pick," Hornacek said. "That doesn't mean that Kendall isn't better than them. These guys will get on the court and they'll battle. If we draft a point guard, it's up in the air. We're going into training camp like anybody can be a starter."

Hornacek's favorite Suns memory is the 1990 Conference Finals run when the Suns played havoc with the league by employing an unguardable three-guard lineup featuring himself flanked by Kevin Johnson and Dan Majerle.

"When the ball comes out of Goran's hands, we need more guys to be able to make a play with it," Suns GM Ryan McDonough said. "Some of the guys in here, to be honest with you, fit that description."

It sounds like McDonough is looking for a combo guard who can play both PG and SG depending on the lineup. But when you're drafting so high, you just have to take the best player available and let it all shake out from there.

If the Suns draft a Trey Burke (at 5) or a Shane Larkin (at 30, or via draft-day trade), it's because that was the best player on the board at their pick.

Michael Carter-Williams

MCW is the biggest point guard in the draft at 6'6". He never reached his potential in two years in college, but was the man for Syracuse during a strong NCAA tournament run. He cited the advantage his height gives him, to see over people on offense and be big enough to crowd the opposing guard with his size.

One big question mark on MCW is his ability to play defense. Syracuse has historically played zone, and produced sketchy NBA defenders as a result of not learning the fundamentals of individual and team defense.

"I think I just want people to see it for themselves. I can sit here and tell everyone till I'm blue in the face I can play defense. But when they see it that's when they will really believe it."

Shane Larkin

Shane Larkin is rising up draft boards on a weekly basis, but still ranked no better than fourth on the PG depth chart and stuck in the middle of the first round of mocks. Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum, Michael Carter-Williams and even Dennis Schroeder are ranked higher at the moment.

"Yeah, that's why you come out here," Larkin said of joining the PG-heavy group. "To go against guys rated above you. I wanted to come out here to work out against all three of them but Trey was doing the individual today."

Larkin's biggest knock is size (5'11"), yet he's nearly the same size as Trey Burke who is currently projected to go as many as 10-15 slots higher in the 2013 NBA Draft.

"Trey is maybe ¾ inch taller than me. He doesn't have the undersized label, but it's whatever."

Larkin's advantage is athleticism. He jumped the highest at the combine and overall ranked very well in all the athletic tests. He clearly has a desire to show off his skills against his closest PG competitors.

"I wish it was one on one," Larkin said. "So I could show my quickness is hard to guard one on one. And the bigger guys [like Michael Carter-Williams], its going to be hard for them to go around me just because I can get into them as a smaller guy. But I wasn't able to show that today but it was a good workout, great strategy, so it was fun."

C.J. McCollum

While Larkin has a lot to prove, and a lot of room to rise up the draft charts, C.J. McCollum is in a trickier spot. If he shows poorly against guys like MCW and Larkin, his draft stock could plummet.

But that's not even an issue for McCollum, a 6'3" combo guard who's happy being pegged with the PGs this week.

"I'm not running from anybody," C.J. McCollum said when asked about playing against the other point guards. "I'm working out against whoever. We're all basketball players, so there should be nothing to hide."

McCollum has been compared to another small-school combo guard who just won rookie of the year, Damian Lillard of the Portland Trailblazers. McCollum embraces that comparison, considering Lillard did so well that McCollum will benefit from an inflated draft stock as a result.

"His demeanor sets him apart, and I think I have the same demeanor. Nothing really fazes us, we're both heady players, both able to score.

"I think it's funny," McCollum continued. "He did well, so now people will say CJ will do well at the next level. But if he would have done poorly, or if Steph Curry did poorly, they'll be saying small school guys can't play in the NBA, it's impossible. I'm glad he did well."

McCollum just graduated from Lehigh with a journalism degree in his four years of playing, citing that dedication as a testament to his character. "I stayed there and committed myself. It shows what type of person I am. I was in an environment where you're a student first, athletes were second. And that's kind of how I approach this game, approach life. "

McCollum is currently rated higher than any PG prospect besides Trey Burke, and could even get drafted above Burke if he shows well in workouts. But it will be tough to surpass Burke since he won't be able to compete directly against the Michigander.

Still, McCollum sees the workout tour as a chance to prove himself, to show the NBA scouts that he can play the game despite not having the prefect measurables.

"I was very undersized, very small," he said. "I watched smaller guys like Allen Iverson. And I watched a lot of guys that weren't very fast like Steve Nash. He does a great job of changing pace and learned to play the angles. I'm not the fastest guy in the world. But I'm kind of smart, I know how to use my body and change gears a little bit."

After watching Kendall Marshall (21 last year) fail to use his big body to create separation for shots, it's clear that McCollum (who will be 23 as a rookie) is a bit more mature in the game of life and basketball.

"Definitely there's an advantage to playing four years and then get thrown into the fire," he said. "You go to bigger schools, you're waiting behind All-Americans, potential pro guys. I got to learn on the fly, and I think that's helped mold me into the player I am today."

Trey Burke

After leading Michigan on a wild, fairy-tale ride through March madness, hitting shots from all over the court and controlling the game like few in college can do, Trey Burke has put himself into a position of power leading into the NBA draft.

While other players like Shane Larkin have to answer questions about size, Burke does not. Burke's amazing tourney run gives him the benefit of being compared, body-wise, to Chris Paul who tossed aside any concerns over being 6 feet tall by being a transcendent player.

Still, Burke is only 6 feet tall and hasn't displayed quickness on defense or a great court vision, two traits that Paul brought with him into the league. Burke's shot-making and leadership is A-plus, but that resume compares just as closely to Acie Law as Chris Paul.

So it's no surprise that Burke is riding this wave and doing nothing to derail it.

"I wouldn't mind competing with a group," Burke said. "My agent just told me it's best to compete by myself. I really don't have a lot to gain by competing with others."

Like Ben McLemore, Burke is only doing individual workouts. His draft stock can't be any higher than it is - as high as #2 to Orlando - so why take any chances? The King of PG Mountain can only go down from here.

Prospect Profiles

Here's the prospect profiles and where they rank on Kris Habbas' Big Board (nbadraftinsider.com)

The only PG prospect not in attendance was Germany's Dennis Schroeder who is not working out for any teams. Rumor has it he's been given a first-round promise, so he returned to Germany until the draft.

Draft Scouting Reports

SB Nation is building scouting reports on all the top prospects. Check them out - very good work. It's always good to see another perspective besides the usual suspects in scouting.

SB Nation NBA Draft Scouting Reports

Strengths Versatility may not be what a fan base craving a go-to scorer wants to see, but Porter’s brand of the quality is more dominant than the average do-it-all athlete. Porter can score (16.2)...

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Ryan_mcdonough

New General Manager Ryan McDonough and President of Basketball Operations Lon Babby have surrounded themselves with some very smart, skilled and experienced folks to help lead the Suns into the next era.

Pat Connelly has been named Assistant General Manager after seven years with the Washington Wizards. His most recent position with the Wizards was Director of Player Personnel. Connelly's path has been similar to McDonough's, working up through the ranks of the Wizards organization from video coordinator.

"Connelly is very well respected," said a long time NBA scout about Connelly joining the Suns. "He definitely fits the mold of what McDonough has described as an evaluator who can do pro, int'l and college scouting."

Ronnie Lester has been added as a scout. Lester last worked in the Lakers' organization for 24 years, most recently as Assistant GM to Mitch Kupchak when they built the latest title winning team. His contract, along with those of 20 other Laker staffers, was not renewed at the end the of the 2011 season when the NBA lockout occurred.

"Both excellent hires," said the scout of Lester and Connelly. "These are experienced guys who have done the job before."

The Suns also named Emilio Kovacic to the position of International Scouting Consultant. Kovacic's last position was European General Manager of Synergy Sports Techonology, a scouting service used by all NBA teams, after a long European basketball career. Long time Suns fans might remember Kovacic from the Suns' 1992 summer league squad. Kovacic also played at Grand Canyon Community College for Paul Westphal in 1988 when they won the NAIA Championship together.

The three new additions supplement the incumbent staff from last season.

Trevor Buckstein, formerly Director of Basketball Administration, was promoted to Assistant General Manager. Trevor worked the last three years in a basketball administration role (CBA interpretation and application, cap management and trade and contract negotiations).

John Treloar will remain the team's Director of Player Personnel, while John Shumate and Bubba Burrage remain as scouts.

Lon Babby oversees the entire staff as President of Basketball Operations.

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