Phoenix Suns fans have not experienced a game-changing draft pick since Amare Stoudemire was taken with the ninth pick in 2003. Names like Jackson Vroman, Alando Tucker and several guys named "Cash" were foisted upon the Suns for years under the guise of "basketball reasons" while the Suns were one of the best and youngest teams in the NBA.
In three of the past ten years, the Suns did not even bring a first round pick onto the team: 2005, 2006, 2010. Two other years, the Suns sold off at least one first round pick while keeping another: 2004 and 2007.
That's five of the past ten years coming out of the draft with less than they started with.
In recent years, the Suns kept their picks and took safe, if not impressive, players, though the grades were often good enough to keep a scholarship. Robin Lopez. Goran Dragic. Earl Clark.
Taylor Griffin. Markieff Morris. Kendall Marshall.
After hitting rock bottom with that approach in the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns now have a new General Manager in charge of making draft day decisions and a renewed commitment to build the team through the draft. Ryan McDonough, the new Chief Talent Officer, has surrounded himself with good talent evaluators who embrace hard work, lots of video and in-person scouting as well as analytics in deciding who to draft when.
Let's stack up the Celtics draft history since McDonough was part of their front office, compared to the Phoenix Suns history over the past ten years. McDonough was not the main decision-maker in Boston at any point in the past decade, but he has been openly credited with the success of their 2006 and 2010 drafts.
Brace yourselves, Suns fans. Let's just say I'd rather have had the Celtics front office over the past ten years than the Suns' when it comes to the NBA Draft.
*all "misses" based on career Win Shares of players still on the board when Boston/Phoenix picked, per basketball-reference.com.
With a lot of youth already on the Suns roster (Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire, Leandro Barbosa all under 23), Bryan Colangelo and new owner Robert Sarver decided to forego the 7th overall pick in favor of free agent dollars (traded for #31 and 2006 first-rounder). That summer, after the youth won only 29 games, the Suns supplemented them with veterans: PG Steve Nash (Dallas, $60 million) and SF Quentin Richardson (Clippers, $48 million). The Suns were also planning to pay Joe Johnson a potential extension (Suns offered $45 million that summer, Johnson wanted $50 million). You can't knock the plan too much, since the Suns went on a run with that core to the tune of 3 WCFs in 6 years. Still, Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala would have looked good in orange and purple after JJ left just a year later.
Boston, on the other hand, was just then getting their youth on. These three picks played a huge part in their eventual NBA Championship. The Boston "misses" are sketchy. You could argue none were better than what Boston took, even though they didn't all spend their careers in Boston. Three years later, West was part of the Ray Allen trade while Jefferson was turned into Kevin Garnett.
The 2005 Draft wasn't a boon of talent where the Suns and Celtics were picking, but there were still a lot of talented players left when they each picked.
Phoenix, who had just finished 62-20 with one of the leagues youngest rosters, totally punted on the draft. This was Bryan Colangelo's last draft for the Suns (he left for Toronto before the end of the 2005-06 season). The Phoenix core was still young and (they thought) intact. But a LOT of money was about to be thrown around, so the Suns sold off their draft pick. Sarver was looking at spending as much as $180 million in extensions that summer that summer alone.
Both Amare Stoudemire AND Joe Johnson were eligible for, and wanted, MAX extensions. No way was that going to happen without Sarver putting his head in a vice. Two max extensions in one offseason is unheard of. Seriously. But Sarver was willing to spend most of it, at least. He wanted to keep JJ, but at $60 million rather than $90 million.
Joe Johnson, feeling disrespected, forced a trade to someone who would give him the max, so the Suns relented and at least got Boris Diaw and two future #1s for him. Amare signed his $90 million extension three months later, just a week before season-ending microfracture surgery.
The Suns traded four different draft picks that year, though two had been traded at least a year before: #13, acquired years earlier, was traded to Charlotte in 2004 in order for them to select Jahidi White in the expansion draft. #21 (Nate Robinson, which had been acquired for Luol Deng, was used to acquire Kurt Thomas), and #57 (Marcin Gortat, years away from playing in the NBA) were traded during or soon after the draft. Their own #30 had been traded in 2003 for the rights to Leandro Barbosa.
For Boston, high-schooler Gerald Green was a boom/bust player who turned out to be a bust. There were so many better players than Gerald Green in that draft. Ryan Gomes was a second-round steal and played well enough to be part of the Garnett trade as well.
2006 was Ryan McDonough's coming out party in the Boston front office. He was sure that Rajon Rondo was one of the two best players in the entire draft and he was absolutely right. No one contributed more Win Shares since being drafted in 2006 than Rondo.
The Suns, once again, punted. Mike D'Antoni led the Draft effort as the interim GM after Colangelo left, and D was never much for drafting end-of-the-bench guys. He liked his 8-man rotation, which was about to be a 9-man rotation with Amare returning healthy. The Suns had just made their second straight WCF and would be a favorite for the 2007 Finals.
Plus, a year after extending Amare the max, the Suns had two more youngsters ready for extensions. Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw. were both up for extensions, and got them to the tune of $14 million per year ($75 million total), starting a year later.
With Amare's contract kicking in, the Suns were bleeding money. They traded both picks away for cash, the first of which not only was the best player in the 2006 draft, but was a pick that had come from Altanta in the JJ trade a year earlier. Technically, the Suns got a 2007 first rounder from the Celtics for Rondo, but the Suns sold that one too.
In 2007, the Suns had just had their hearts broken by San Antonio for the second time in 3 years, falling short of the WCF despite being supremely talented. Now, the tax bill was coming due. Both Barbosa and Diaw had been extended for a total of $14 million per season, and Amare's salary was growing each season as well. Add in Nash and others and the Suns were looking to be well into luxury tax territory.
Suns part-owner Steve Kerr took over the front office and promptly sold off three first round draft picks (#24 in 2007 that had been acquired for Rajon Rondo, plus unprotected first-rounders in 2008 and 2010) as well as Kurt Thomas. All to save money for the tax bill on the Suns' remaining players. The Suns were a top-10 spending team for several years in a row during this period.
And that's not even considering Shawn Marion, who was up for an extension of his own that would start in 2008. Marion's tenure and previous max contract would require more than $20 million per year if signed off. Sarver was already paying gobs of lux tax money. So Steve Kerr politely told Marion that only a handful of guys in the league deserve max money. Marion did not like that.
*Special footnote: the Suns ALMOST had the 8th pick in the 2007 Draft from Atlanta, but the Hawks got the ping-pong balls to jump to #3 and keep their pick. The Suns reportedly really wanted Joakim Noah to replace Kurt Thomas... When the Suns didn't get that pick, it rolled over to 2008.
For Boston, the summer of 2007 was a watershed moment in their franchise. After finishing 5th-worst in the NBA, they traded the #5 pick and others for Ray Allen. Then they traded Al Jefferson and others for Kevin Garnett. These trades were fueled by the Celtics draft success in recent years.
In a span of one offseason, the Celtics went from bottom-5 in the league to Finals contender to NBA Championship winner.
The Suns finally got more payback than Boris Diaw from the JJ trade when they took Robin Lopez in 2008. But by this time, the bloom was off the rose of these Suns. They'd already seen it wilting, and tried to jumpstart the team by trading Marion for Shaquille O'Neal. It was a misfit from the start, and the Suns went home in the first round.
Lopez was a nice pick, but look at the picks that came after that. Several of them would have been as good as Lopez. Note: Serge Ibaka *could* have been taken with the Suns' own pick later in that round, but it had already been sold off with Kurt Thomas the year before.
Less than a week after winning a thrilling Finals over the Lakers, Boston came into the draft with a hangover and promptly fell asleep with the phone off the hook. They missed on a boatload of talent to take a guy who would hardly ever play in the NBA. Shows what can happen when you think you've got it all, and a late first can't possibly help your team.
Okay, that's enough bloodshed for the day. Tomorrow, I will recap Phoenix and Boston's 2009-2012 drafts. It's important to look at recent events as a barometer for success in the immediate future.
In summary, Boston did better in the 2004-2008 drafts than the Phoenix Suns did.
As last year's winner I would like to pass the baton to another great champion. I was basically an abject failure in defending my crown, but repeating can be hard. Especially without a Chris Bosh to score zero points in a series clincher.
Thanks again to everybody for participating. Here are the final standings:
Before you dive head first off the deep end of a shallow pool or throw your computer out the window, remind yourself that the Celtics (from whose front office the Phoenix Suns pilfered draft help) have not overdrafted and kept any significant players in the past decade.
Granted, they have been drafting recently in the bottom of the first round. This allowed them to be opportunistic in their draft selections, waiting for players to drop. But at least they didn't overdraft.
On Thursday, the Phoenix Suns will be on the clock at the #5 position with four players off the board. Which four players is a complete mystery.
"There's no player or subset of players, even at five, that I can put aside and say, ‘OK, this guy or these guys definitely won't be there. I don't need to worry about them,' " Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough said yesterday after another draft workout. "I feel like, even at five, we need to be prepared for every scenario, like every guy on the board could be there."
The most common, logical rumors have the Cavaliers taking a big man (Nerlens Noel or Alex Len), the Orlando Magic taking a shooting guard (Victor Oladipo or Ben McLemore), the Washington Wizards taking a small forward (Otto Porter has refused to even visit anyone below the Wizards pick) and the Charlotte Bobcats taking a big man (whichever of Noel or Len is available, or PF Anthony Bennett).
But that doesn't mean it will happen that way. With trades and smokescreens, the NBA Draft has always been a crapshoot and this year is crappier than most.
According to ESPN's Draft Tiers, not one player in this draft is a shoe-in to make an All-Star team. Some could make it someday, but none are projected as sure-fire All-Stars.
At the third tier, projected long-term NBA starters, there are "the six" mentioned above. By process of elimination, the Suns will be able to choose from among two of those six.
None of those top six are point guards. So why even bother worrying about whether the Suns would take a point guard at #5 overall?
Because Ryan McDonough has hinted all month that the pool of best players at #5 is wider than six. At the start of the month, he said he was looking at 10-12 players for that 5th spot. The other day, he had narrowed it down to "6, or 8, or 10".
The Suns held a point-guard heavy workout earlier this month in which Trey Burke worked out alone, while Michael Carter-Williams, Shane Larkin and C.J. McCollum dogged it out in the group workout. All but Larkin are projected to be drafted in the lottery, with a high chance that Burke (Pelicans), MCW (Kings) and McCollum (Pistons) are even gone by the 8th selection.
Remember, McDonough has said his draft pool as #5 is as big as "6, or 8, or 10".
Paul Coro of azcentral.com/sports, who only reports based on intel he's received rather than conjecture like I do, wrote yesterday/this morning:
If the Suns draft one of those players or perhaps a point guard surprise like Lehigh's C.J. McCollum or Michigan's Trey Burke, the choice likely will be more of a building block than a blockbuster in the rebuilding work.
The Suns will take a best-player-available approach into this year's draft, not even ruling out a point-guard selection with Goran Dragic under a long-term deal and Kendall Marshall and Diante Garrett coming off rookie seasons.
See how he just innocuously slipped that in there?
Last week, radio host John Gambodoro (plugged into the Suns front office at the highest levels) tweeted that the Suns love Michael Carter-Williams.
That's how teams prep their fans for a surprise. They sprinkle out an unattributed rumor in a good light through the beat reporters. Then later in the week it becomes something more substantial, but by that time the fans have had time to digest the idea. By draft day, it's even more clear.
Yet this rumor of maybe a point guard pick could all be just that: Rumor. Smokescreening.
Why would the Suns pass up two of the conventionally-listed "top six" just to duplicate the only position that is passably covered for the next three years?
Tomorrow I will be posting the draft history of both the Celtics and the Suns for the past decade. In that, you will see that the Celtics never overdrafted a player that high and kept him. Twice they drafted in the top ten (Randy Foye and Jeff Green) but traded them for better assets by the end of the night.
Don't expect the Suns to trade out of the 5th pick. It's probably more likely they trade up to #2 to guarantee their choice of McLemore/Oladipo than trade down.
The interest in Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum and Michael Carter-Williams may be real. But it's more likely that interest is in taking whoever drops to a later pick. Later than #5, through some kind of trade.
But that's just my guess. I deal in conjecture on this here blog.
Height: 6' 4.25"
Wingspan: 6' 9.25"
Verticle (Max): 42"
Combine Interview (courtesy of Draft Express)
Draft Scouting Video with in-depth analysis (courtesy of Draft Express)
And if his playing alone isn't reason enough to draft him, which it most certainly is, he could also fill in as the half-time entertainment on any given night if need be. The man can sing!
While it's anyone's guess who the Suns will actually end up drafting with the 5th pick this Thursday, I feel comfortable saying with relative certainty that if Oladipo is still available by the time the Suns' make their selection that he will be their guy.
I've been on the Oladipo bandwagon all year long, and have made no secret of my love for his game. He was without a doubt my favorite college player this past season, and I am convinced he is one of the top three prospects in this draft. In my opinion, it would be a great value if the Suns end up drafting Oladipo with the 5th pick in the draft. The Suns can only hope that they are fortunate enough to do so. There have been rumors surfacing lately that the Orlando Magic like Oladipo better than McLemore now, and could select him as high as the 2nd pick. In order for Phoenix to draft Oladipo, they need either Trey Burke or Alex Len to crack the top 4. If either of these scenarios happen, the Suns' chances of drafting Oladipo increases significantly.
Height: 6' 6"
Wingspan: 6' 7.25"
Verticle (Max): 33.5"
Ledo was one of the top guard prospects in the nation (ranked as high as #6 overall by Rivals.com) and a McDonald's All-American coming out of high school last year, but was declared academically ineligible last season at Providence and didn't play a single game in college.
Combine Interview (courtesy of Draft Express)
Draft Workout Preparation(courtesy of SLAM Magazine)
Ledo is without question one of the biggest question marks in this year's draft. On one hand he could be the same player who was ranked ahead of top prospects like Anthony Bennett, Marcus Smart, and Glenn Robinson III just last year (according to Rivals.com); or he could be an unproven high school phenom who fails to make the transition to the NBA after missing out on the experience of playing in the NCAA.
Ricky Ledo is without question a very talented young prospect who was one of the best scorers out of the entire class of 2012. In addition to his ability to get to the hoop and score from nearly anywhere on the court, he has incredible handles, a knack for creating off the dribble, and the skills of a combo guard with the ability to create for teammates with very good court vision and passing.
So why isn't he a lottery pick?
Well, there are a couple major red flags.
In addition to missing his only NCAA season due to academic ineligibility, and the lack of game tape with which to evaluate him, there are some legit character concerns as well.
He has built the reputation of being a locker room cancer in the past; so much so that one anonymous coach of his was reportedly quoted as saying that Ledo was, " the single worst human being I'd ever been associated with on a basketball court” and a “program killer.”
However, other coaches of his have had much better things to say about Ledo, and by all accounts he has had very impressive interviews and workouts with the teams he has visited, including Phoenix.
Ledo has eased many of the on-court concerns with his showing at the combine as well as with teams workouts. His biggest obstacle will be overcoming those character concerns. Still, most analysts claim that Ledo's stock is rising fast, so once again, Phoenix will likely need a little luck if they plan on drafting him.
So is Ledo really worth the risk? Absolutely. If Ledo is still available at #30 when the Suns pick, they shouldn't hesitate to make him their selection. He has top prospect potential and ability, and in my opinion, would be an absolute steal at the end of the first round.