And we thought rebounding was bad before...

Seth had a GREAT writeup over at SB Nation AZ last night, which he referenced in the last poll below this. Basically, the Suns' offense is going to be more potent than ever and the perimeter defense might be the best it has ever been, as well (collectively).

But the big remaining question: if the Suns start Hedo Turkoglu at PF, will the Suns ever win the rebounding battle again?

The answer, actually, is pretty obvious (Suns will suck at rebounding), but.. and this is the good part: not quite as badly as you might have thought.

Sure, Hedo Turkoglu is the worst rebounding player for his size in the history of basketball. Really, I'm not exaggerating.

Sure, we don't have a Dwight Howard on our team to pick up his slack.

But let's look at the actual numbers:

According to hoopsstats.com, the Suns were 7th in overall rebounds per game last season, at 43.0, last season. Unfortunately, they gave up 42.3 to the other team (10th worst in the league), so their total rebound rate per game was just 50.7% of total possible rebounds.

The problem wasn't in getting rebounds, it was stopping the other team from getting so many. Especially considering the Suns had, by a wide margin, the most efficient offense in the league last year (and 3rd in history, if I recall correctly), this SHOULD translate to fewer rebounds for the opposition.

But I digress.

Back to acquisitions of Hakim Warrick, Hedo Turkoglu and Josh Childress to replace Amare Stoudemire, Lou Amundson and Leandro Barbosa.

How much rebounding did the Suns actually lose? In terms of grabbing rebounds, my guess is 2 fewer per game, swinging the overall rebound differential in the other direction.

Why only a couple rebounds diff, when Turk gets 5 while Amare would get 9? Because I'm assuming Turk gets fewer minutes than Amare's 34 mins per game, while Childress and Warrick (not bad rebounders) get more minutes than LB and Lou did.

 

	Rebs	Mins	Reb/Min	Est Mins 2010-2011	Tot Rebs per game
Turkoglu	753	5,087	0.15	28	4.14
Warrick	720	3,586	0.20	15	3.01
Childress	713	4,300	0.17	24	3.98
Richardson	404	2,485	0.16	27	4.39
Dudley	286	1,384	0.21	24	4.96
Hill	445	2,430	0.18	23	4.21
Frye	427	2,190	0.19	26	5.07
Lopez	248	986	0.25	25	6.29
Dragic	171	1,442	0.12	19	2.25
Nash	268	2,660	0.10	29	2.92
				240	41.23

But if the Suns want to break even, they will need major development from Robin Lopez and Channing Frye in the rebounding department. If each increases his rebound rate by 1 per game on the same minutes, then the Suns stand a chance. And if the Suns improve their defense, causing more misses by the opposing team, the margin improves further.

If not, it's 2005-2006 all over again. The Suns were outrebounded by 5 per game that season. They were the little team that could, with Boris Diaw playing PF, Tim Thomas at C and Shawn Marion at SF. Yet even that wouldn't be so bad: they still made the Western Conference Finals.

So that's your rebounding battle - the weakest link of this current Suns team, yet not as weak and you might have thought.

And if you factor in an even MORE potent offense and better perimeter defense, this team just might rival any of the decade.

That's a huge sigh of relief over the gloom and doom of recent weeks.

GO SUNS!

Well, well well.

Isn't this fun? Say what you want about the Suns, but they are never boring. Not on the court and not in the offseason.

Wow.

I put a very detailed analysis of these moves over at SB Nation Arizona. And yes, if you are wondering... I am in fact trying to drive some traffic to that new site. Sue me.

Here's the conclusion for you impatient types:

The Josh Childress deal is fantastic. He's a dynamic player who's been coveted by many teams and at 27 years old is coming into his prime. To get him for only a second round pick is a steal. He provides depth at two positions that both happen to be occupied by guys (Hill and Richardson) who have only one year left on their contracts. Childress is a player who can and should start for an NBA team, unlike a role player like Jared Dudley, who is best in a reserve role.

Childress will make the Suns better defensively and, if he can improve his three-point shooting from his career average of .360, then he can fit nicely with the Suns as a spot-up shooter. His .522 overall field goal shooting in four years with the Atlanta Hawks is the sign of a highly efficient offensive player, which is exactly what the Suns covet.

A + for pulling off this deal.

Hedo Turkuglo is going to take some more convincing. He's a very unique player, but as stated above, will likely struggle defensively at the power forward and create even more problems on the defensive glass.

If he eventually moves back to small forward when Hill retires and the Suns find a better option to start at the four, then that will probably make more sense. In the meantime, there are concerns over a guy who chose as a free agent to go to Toronto and then asked to be traded after only one season. A friend of mine who covered the Raptors this season responded with "good luck" when I asked if he was a good guy.

At 31 years old, with four years left on his contract, this is a much bigger risk. I can't help but think of another 6-foot-10 foreign player (Peja Stojakovic) who signed a long-term deal with the Hornets that has turned into a giant drain on their team. That's the worst case scenario. Of course, with news that the Suns head trainer Aaron Nelson has also re-signed with the Suns for four more years, we can hope that the healing magic continues and Hedo remains productive.

Trading Leandro Barbosa is a wise move. His time here had run its course and with the development of Goran Dragic, his services became redundant. He is a great teammate and fantastic person and for those reasons will be missed, but losing him isn't a big blow to the team's on-court potential.

There's a lot of unanswered questions with Hedo and this deal could go either way. It could prove to be a fantastic move if he stays healthy and plays well or it could certainly be a bust.

I am giving this deal a C.

Once again, the Suns prove to be a team willing to make moves and shake things up. There's never a dull moment and if nothing else, there will be plenty to talk about when the team takes the court in October.

Poll

So, what do you think?

• Love both deals. Well done!
• Love Josh, not sure yet on Hedo
• Love Hedo, not sure yet on Josh
• Don't like either move
• How can I get my hair to look like that guy?

  2444 votes | Results

The Phoenix Suns appear ready to reshape their roster by acquiring Josh Childress and Hedo Turkoglu, according to The Arizona Republic‘s Paul Coro. Multiple sources have reported that the...

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The Phoenix Suns appear ready to reshape their roster by acquiring Josh Childress and Hedo Turkoglu, according to The Arizona Republic‘s Paul Coro. Multiple sources have reported that the...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Suns Near Acquisitions of Hedo Turkoglu, Josh Childress