Will this guy still be wearing a Phoenix jersey next season?

In the summer of 2010, the Phoenix Suns negotiated a sign-and-trade for former Atlanta Hawks swingman Josh Childress, who was just returning to the NBA from a two-year stint overseas. Childress had earned a reputation as a quality sixth man during his years in Atlanta and many saw the acquisition of the 6-foot-8 wing as a great move. He was expected to provide slashing, rebounding and some lock-down defense on opposing guards and small forwards.

Unfortunately, that isn't exactly how it turned out. Two years into the five-year $33.50 million contract, Childress has only played in 88 of a possible 154 games, averaging just 15.7 minutes per game. Chills has spent more time sitting on the bench (perhaps playing checkers?) than he has on the court.

So what happened?

Childress and his fit on this team has been discussed to death on this blog. At this point, we all know that his inability to knock down the 3-ball, or even the mid-range two, means he has no place playing alongside Nash. The pick-and-roll needs shooters to space the floor for Steve and the big to work in the paint, and even Grant Hill with his reliable,17-footer was pushing it. So Chilly in the starting five was not something we were ever going to see without multiple injuries.

But why could he never crack the rotation as a bench player? Let's dive into the numbers to find out.

Career Per Game Stats:

Per-36 Minutes:

Advanced:

Looking at his Atlanta numbers, the first thing that jumps out to me is his defensive rating. We were expecting a defensive dynamo when we signed Childress, but even his numbers in Atlanta show that that simply isn't the case. Add in the fact that he spent two years in Greece playing a completely different style of basketball and defending different kinds of players, and it's no wonder he's been a disappointment on that end. So that's strike one.

The second thing that I noticed were his offensive numbers. Chill has never been a go-to guy offensively, but his Atlanta stats show that he used to be a viable threat to score. He was a double-digit scorer in each of his four years with the Hawks, and his shooting percentages and offensive rating are pretty darn good. So why didn't we see that Chilldress? I have two possible reasons.

First, and this one most of you know already, he was not put in a position to maximize his strengths. MySynergySports.com says that 29.6% of Childress' offensive possessions (at least those ending in a FGA, a TO, or FTA) came in spot-up situations, by far the most of any play type. That doesn't seem wise for a player without a reliable jumpshot. Second and third on the list are what were perceived to be Chilly's strengths, cuts to the basket and plays in transition, and he was pretty effective in these situations. However, those two categories accounted for roughly 34 percent of his plays, or a total of 37 out of 108. So why didn't we see more of him in these situations? I'm not really sure.

Second, and my only explanation for why we haven't seen the old Chilly is that he doesn't exist any more, at least for the time being. When I watch him play, I just don't see the same guy that was so effective off the bench for the Hawks. He seems to have lost confidence. He was not aggressive at all offensively on the rare occasions that he got on the court. He just seemed lost out there for the most part.

But there have been flashes of the old Chills. Every now and then, he showcased a little bit of the athleticism and craftiness that made him effective in Atlanta. He certainly plays with energy, as evidenced by his 7.2 offensive rebound percentage, good for third on the team behind the two centers. His ORtg and DRtg were both decent this year at 114 and 107, and he was sixth on the team with 0.92 win shares per 48 minutes (beware small sample size).

Childress also deserves credit for accepting his role. He has racked up plenty of DNP-CDs in his two years in Phoenix, yet we haven't heard any complaints from him. He's also kept himself ready just in case the team needed him, and he responded as well as can be expected when his name was finally called upon.

However, as much as I like Childress, if he can't find a way to get on the court it means he can't produce. With as much as he is being paid, we can't afford him not to produce. Josh has 3 years remaining on his contract, and he is set to make $6.5 million next season with his salary escalating over the following years. The Suns still have the ability to use the amnesty clause, and with the way things have turned out, Childress is a prime candidate to use it on.

So what do you all think? Is there still hope for Chilly in a Suns uniform? Or is this ill-fated union about to come to an end?

Poll
To amnesty, or not to amnesty? That is the question I pose to you.

  300 votes | Results


Get 'em, Chris

(SB Nation) The New York Knicks managed to do something in the 2012 NBA Playoffs that they hadn't done since 2001, they won a game. Unfortunately for them, a combination of injuries and their roller coaster season meant that one game would be all they could manage against the Miami Heat. Miami now advances to face the Indiana Pacers in a second-round test that will be no calk walk.

The Memphis survived to fight another day by defeating the Clippers with a strong defensive effort in the 92-80 win. The Grizzlies inside presence with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph final did what we've been waiting for and took charge of the offense. Los Angeles still leads 3-2 in the series with Game 6 in L.A. on Friday.

There are three games on the playoff schedule for Thursday:

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers at 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT on NBA TV

The Bulls aren't dead yet, but they are going to need another outstanding defensive effort to avoid that fate. The 76ers should be able to take advantage of the Chicago injuries and get the home win and advance.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Celtics at 8:00 p.m. ET / 5:00 p.m. PT on TNT

Even though Al Horford is back and giving the Celtics fits inside, it's very hard to imagine an Atlanta Hawks team winning a big game on the road. Boston in a closeout game at home...can't bet against that.

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets at 10:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. PT on TNT

Did the Nuggets find a recipe for beating the Lakers or was L.A. just slacking off? It's probably the later, but we'll find out soon enough.

Check out the SB Nation Channel on YouTube


Thanks to the NBA’s great new stats tool, today we will delve deeper into the 2011-12 Phoenix Suns’ season with the help of advanced stats. The first half/second half offensive...

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It’s common for NBA stars to play the part of de facto GM, demanding their team acquire better players or risk losing them. Before signing perhaps his last NBA contract this summer, Steve Nash...

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Robin regained some of his explosiveness this season but says he's still not all the way back.

Here at Bright Side of the Sun we take the words TOTAL COVERAGE pretty dang seriously.

While our beloved Suns are off taking nice vacations, we are still slaving away, attempting to provide you all with first class Suns coverage.

So friends, without further adieu, we present you with the Phoenix Suns Season in Review, 2011-12.

Up for discussion today is Robin Lopez.


The story of Robin Lopez as a Phoenix Sun so far has been that of a meteoric rise in the 2010 season, great disappointment last season, and now Lopez settling into a role as an above average backup center. It's important to look past his meager 5.4 points and 3.3 rebound averages, as he played only 14.0 minutes per game and didn't have stable point guard play for much of his time on the court.

This past season, Lopez regained his athleticism, continuing to progress since the bulging back disc he suffered in March of 2010, led the team in blocked shot percentage, and proved to be an effective finisher on the pick and roll. Still, Lopez continued to struggle with foul trouble, overall inconsistency, and shot an all-time low FG%.

For a fourth year player who was picked #15 in the 2008 NBA Draft, ahead of the likes of Serge Ibaka, Roy Hibbert and Ryan Anderson, Lopez has been a disappointment in comparison. However, as a backup center for the Suns this past year, he filled his role well.

Is the glass half empty, or half full? It's both!

Let's start with a look at Lopez' career, basic per 36 minute numbers:

Season Age Tm Lg G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2008-09 20 PHO NBA 60 7 614 4.2 8.0 .518 0.0 0.1 .000 2.8 4.0 .691 3.0 3.9 6.9 0.5 0.6 2.4 1.6 5.7 11.1
2009-10 21 PHO NBA 51 31 986 6.2 10.6 .588 0.0 0.0 3.2 4.6 .704 3.8 5.3 9.1 0.3 0.4 1.9 1.5 4.3 15.7
2010-11 22 PHO NBA 67 56 991 6.5 13.0 .501 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.6 .740 3.0 4.9 7.8 0.3 0.7 1.6 1.7 5.2 15.7
2011-12 23 PHO NBA 64 0 895 5.0 10.8 .461 0.0 0.0 4.0 5.6 .714 3.6 4.8 8.4 0.8 0.7 2.4 1.7 5.1 14.0
Career NBA 242 94 3486 5.6 10.9 .517 0.0 0.0 .000 3.2 4.5 .714 3.4 4.8 8.2 0.4 0.6 2.1 1.7 5.0 14.4
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/8/2012.

His scoring and rebounding numbers were right at career averages. Unfortunately, so were his personal fouls, and his FG shooting was a career low. Lopez used to have a little bit of range on his jumper, but that's one thing that did not return to his game this season. In fact, he was fairly inefficient overall on the offensive end except for one area.

According to mySynergySports.com, Lopez was 20th in the league in PPP (points per play) as roll player on the pick and roll, with 1.15. This wasn't far behind Gortat's 11th place finish at 1.22. The difference is that Gortat was the P&R roll player on 33.4% of his shots, Lopez for only 14.4%. It stands to reason that Lopez would be much more efficient if he was Steve Nash's roll player more frequently.

What might be most impressive is that in a 66-game season, Lopez was able to play in 64 of them, nearly the most games in a season for his career. If Lopez is finally healthy and can get consistent minutes, he should be able to build some momentum in his improvements as a player. He just turned 24 years of age in April.

Looking inside the numbers some more, here's Lopez' standing among his Suns teammates in win shares/48 minutes and other advanced stats:

Rk Player Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Marcin Gortat 27 66 2114 21.2 .578 .555 10.0 25.0 17.6 4.8 1.2 3.4 9.3 20.8 115 103 4.9 2.7 7.6 .172
2 Steve Nash 37 62 1961 20.3 .625 .581 1.5 9.1 5.3 53.1 1.0 0.3 27.1 19.6 115 110 5.2 0.6 5.9 .144
3 Jared Dudley 26 65 2020 15.4 .575 .547 5.4 11.4 8.4 8.8 1.3 0.7 9.1 17.7 115 109 4.0 1.1 5.1 .121
4 Robin Lopez 23 64 895 15.2 .526 .461 11.5 14.8 13.2 3.4 1.0 4.8 11.5 18.9 108 105 1.2 0.9 2.1 .115
5 Channing Frye 28 64 1669 14.9 .519 .490 4.8 20.6 12.8 8.3 1.3 3.0 8.8 19.3 106 104 1.8 1.9 3.7 .106
6 Josh Childress 28 34 491 11.1 .501 .505 7.2 14.6 10.9 10.0 1.5 0.9 8.3 10.1 114 107 0.6 0.4 0.9 .092
7 Markieff Morris 22 63 1227 12.1 .484 .448 6.4 19.1 12.8 8.2 1.7 2.5 12.7 20.4 97 104 0.1 1.4 1.5 .059
8 Sebastian Telfair 26 60 895 13.2 .495 .461 2.5 8.9 5.7 24.5 2.4 1.0 15.5 22.3 99 107 0.4 0.7 1.1 .058
9 Grant Hill 39 49 1378 12.3 .500 .461 2.4 11.5 7.0 12.1 1.5 1.5 11.5 18.6 100 107 0.6 0.9 1.6 .055
10 Shannon Brown 26 59 1400 13.6 .507 .477 3.1 9.5 6.3 8.1 1.6 0.8 9.1 22.8 101 108 0.8 0.8 1.6 .054
11 Michael Redd 32 51 770 13.9 .511 .458 2.1 9.1 5.6 7.1 0.9 0.0 8.3 26.3 102 111 0.6 0.2 0.8 .052
12 Hakim Warrick 29 35 503 13.1 .503 .414 7.0 13.5 10.3 9.3 0.8 0.4 13.9 23.4 100 109 0.3 0.2 0.5 .050
13 Ronnie Price 28 36 517 8.4 .465 .427 4.0 8.2 6.1 18.7 3.4 0.4 24.6 16.4 89 105 -0.4 0.5 0.1 .008
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/8/2012.

Noteworthy for Lopez:

  • #1 with 4.8 blocks per 100 opponents' field goal attempts.
  • #1 in offensive rebound % and #2 in overall rebound % (though well behind Gortat).
  • #5 in offensive rating
  • #5 in defensive rating
  • If you put any value in on court/off court team performance, Lopez was the best among all bench players at only -4.2, according to 82games.com.

Lopez' breakout performance playing alongside Amar'e Stoudemire in 2010 probably gave us inflated expectations of his abilities. Last season burst that bubble, and Lopez fell as far as to behind Garrett Siler on the depth chart for a spell. Now, the big man of crazy hair and few words seems to finally be settling in as the player the Suns expected when they drafted him.

From Phoenix Stan Seth Pollack in July, 2008, right after the draft.

Here's some tidbits from Porter and Lopez on the radio tonight:


  • Porter says Lopez will play and be a rotation guy playing along side Amare or Boris.
  • Not sure about his ability to play with Shaq. That makes sense.
  • Lopez was the top guy on the Suns draft board ahead of Rush, Randolph, Batum and Courtney Lee in that order.
  • The Suns like Robin better than Brook and think he will end up being the better of the two and would have picked him ahead of Brook.
  • They love his motor and intensity, but also he has good hands and a high basketball IQ.
  • Lopez understands his role - defensive energy, and that's what the Suns need.
  • His numbers weren't great at Stanford but he was often defending the other teams' best big and played unselfishly with his brother giving up stats to box out or guard guys on the perimeter. Again - exactly what the Suns need next to Amare.
  • And, just so everybody knows that Seth's man crush on Lopez is no passing fancy:

    For the 15th pick you aren't going to get an all-star, so why not get the kind of glue guy that any playoff team needs? I think Suns fans are going to love this kid in no time.

    Lopez' motor and intensity are indeed fine. In fact, sometimes his high intensity gets the best of him and that compromises his basketball IQ. Doing the dirty work and bringing defensive energy are strengths of Lopez as well. Though Amar'e is, of course, long gone, the need for a big man willing to fill that role will always be there.

    Bench play of the Suns has been widely discussed and recognized as a key difference between the early season struggles and late season push into playoff contention. Lopez is the Suns' best bench player by a few measures but, more importantly, he would be the toughest of the bench crew to replace. Big men are always at a premium, especially those who protect the rim as Lopez does.

    As a restricted free agent this off-season, the rest of the league's teams will be able to offer him a contract proposal the Suns can either match to keep him, or decline and let him leave, with salary cap space the only compensation for the Suns.

    President of Basketball Operations Lon Babby, in a recent lunch with the media, called Lopez' second half performance "excellent", and said that "it's quite likely, if not certain that we're going to match" any offer made by another team for the 7'0" center. We'll see how that plays out and what kind of offer Lopez might receive. He's an asset worth keeping around, but it always depends on the cost.

    Overall, Lopez is a dependable backup player who has a rare skill set and brings more to the team than his basic stats indicate. For being a low lottery pick, and seeing who the Suns passed on to take him, he has achieved to expectations at best, including this past season.

    For that, I give Lopez a C.

    What say you?

    Here's what Lopez had to say to the media after his exit interview with head coach Alvin Gentry, including this answer when asked how he felt physically and if he had his full explosiveness back:

    "A little bit. I still think it's a little bit of a process. It's slowly returning."


    Poll
    What grade do you give Robin Lopez for his 2011-2012 season?

      223 votes | Results


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