Last week I took a look at how the Suns had fared in close games this season. Consider this part two, as I look further into what constitutes a close game and the correlation between winning % in close games compared to overall winning %.
We have hit the last Sunday before Thanksgiving and the Suns sit at 6-6 after a
practically unwatchable bounce back victory against the Charlotte Bobcats. The Suns basically dominated the second half of that game, but let the Bobcats scramble to within single digits in the waning moments. Charlotte even hit that magical number of five points with :14 left in the game...
That makes it 11 out of 12 games this season where the score has been within five points in the final three minutes. Yes, three. Don't ask me why people were disseminating the five points/five minutes stat when this makes it appear even closer. But at this point that stat has really become a farce. The Suns have played very competitively this season. They have led in the fourth quarter of every game with the exception of their home loss to Sacramento. But only a few of their games have really been close...
And so I have a graph... a graphtastic graph. The plots on this graph depict the scoring margin between the Suns and their opponents at each time either team scored over the last three minutes (180 seconds). Everything above zero represents the Suns leading and everything below zero represents the Suns trailing. The Suns are 5-2 this season in games that really aren't that close. Six of these got within the fabled five point mark in the last three minutes, but only one of them even became a one score game (OKC). Calling any of these close, with the possible exception of OKC, seems really disingenuous. I'll expound on this as we progress.
Here are the five games the Suns have played which definitively qualify as close. All five were decided by three or less points. I only tracked the last three minutes of regulation in the Brooklyn game, which went into overtime, in this graph, but I have more data that I will share on this later. See the difference? This graph is like the turkey (preferably deep fried and injected with something savory like jalapeno butter) that stuffs between the pieces of roll (perhaps pretzel rolls?) from the first graph. In these games the Suns are 1-4.
Here is the previous graph blown up to facilitate further analysis. Four of these five games were were within four points the entire last three minutes. Three of them were within three. All five had a lead change (none of the easily decided games did).
Here are the trendlines for each game. Here is the methodology for determining these values.
What I'm determining here is the average scoring margin between the teams over the last three minutes. At the three minute mark (180 seconds) the Suns led by five. Then with 152 seconds left they scored and led by seven. For 28 seconds (180-152) the Suns led by five points (28 x 5 = 140). They led by seven for the next 47 seconds (47 x 7 = 329) and so on. Then I add up all the totals in that third column and divide by 180 seconds. In this case the Suns led Portland by an average of 8.97 points over the last three minutes. Here are the totals for the other 11 games.
Utah 11/1: 1.64
OKC 11/3: -4.97
NO 11/5: 6.43
SA 11/6: -.88
Denver 11/8: 8.03
NO: 11/10: 7.14
Portland 11/13: 1.06
Brooklyn 11/15: -.96 *The average for overtime was -.89 and for the last eight minutes overall was -.91
Sacramento 11/19: 1.96
Sacramento 11/20: -8.24
This further illustrates the case between the close games and more easily decided contests. All of the close games were less than +/- two points over the final three minutes. Among the other seven games only OKC was even within +/- five (-4.97). The other six games were all over +/- six points (6.43).
Now to try to amalgamate all of this into a more approximate definition of what constitutes a close game.
- The 12 games can be divided into two groups: five games had a +/- within two points while the other seven ranged between +/- five to 11.
- The five close games all had a lead change.
- The closest of the seven game group was within one score at a point in the final three minutes (OKC at -2 with :30 left).
- All of the close games were decided by three points or less. The other seven games were all decided by six points or more.
From this I would offer that an average +/- somewhere between 3-4 or lower will probably always be a close game. Running this type of measurement through seasons of games could probably pinpoint a more exact number of what average scoring margin would be most all-encompassing. Some other games where a team rallies to within a score in the final minute will be outliers from this general rule, but should also be included as close games. A final margin of victory of five points or less is also fairly predictive, but less so than the two previous metrics.
What do you think?
Now, back to that final margin of victory within five points. While this is somewhat of a crude designation, it is effective enough to allow me to demonstrate another point. After the Brooklyn game there was some talk of the luck involved with winning close games. The percentages of certain shots, the ability of teams to set themselves up in situations with better opportunities to succeed, close games coming down to a 50/50 coin flip type of situation, etc.
Well, I enlisted some data compiled for me on teamrankings.com to propound the correlation between overall winning % and winning % in close games. Basically, good teams tend to win more close games than bad teams. It's not a 50/50 proposition.
The trendline for this compilation of data shows that there is definitely a link between overall winning % and close game (decided by five points or less) winning %. This is for the 2013-14 season. But, of course, this might be misleading... Why? Sample size. Of course one would expect that teams with an early advantage in close games would also have a better overall winning % after only a dozen or so games.
Well, let's take a look at 2012-13.
This agrees with the first chart over a larger sample size. As you can see, only three teams with losing records were over .500 in close games while 10 teams with winning records were over .500 in close games.
Shockingly enough, better teams with better players win more games... and more close games.
Hopefully you liked all my charts and graphs. I
spent way too much time enjoyed making them. Maybe next week I will move on to a fresh topic. Or maybe not. Obsessing on this has been kind of thought provoking. Plus, rants can tend to stretch on at times.
This was a less than stellar week for the Suns, going 1-3 in all. But even with the losses, there were still some players who stepped up. Who deserves to be named the player of the week?
Weekly Stat Averages:
Points: 18.5 FG%: .423 Assists: 7.8 Steals: 1.5 Rebounds: 2.5
This hasn't been an easy stretch for Dragic, playing without Bledsoe has proven to be more difficult than many of us probably realized. However, he has played with maximum effort, leading the Suns in scoring this week while also leading them in assists.
Weekly Stat Averages:
Points: 13.2 FG%: .752 3pt%: .708 Rebounds: 5.0
Initially, some may be surprised to see Marcus on this list, but take a step back and look at how he's performed over the past week, and it becomes more obvious. Although Markieff Morris has proven to be consistently inconsistent, Marcus Morris is quietly in the midst of having one of the most efficient stretches of his NBA career.
Over the past week, he averaged 18 minutes per game, and 13.2 points. Not only that, but he was selective with his shots, and scored them at an extremely high percentage. Marcus led the Suns in field goal percentage and three-point percentage over this past week, and has made the most of his minutes by contributing with not only shooting, but rebounding as well. Marcus has been one of the Suns' best and most consistent bench players this season, and this week was no exception.
Weekly Stat Averages:
Points: 12.5 FG%: .592 Assists: 2.0 Steals: .5 Rebounds: 5.0
Not only has Tucker continued to play with the relentless hustle that helped make him a fan favorite last season, he improved his shooting and found his new favorite spot on the court to make the other team pay...the corner three.
P.J. Tucker deserves to be recognized this week as one of the new leaders of the team who inspires others to hustle and play hard while leading by example. Tucker was one of the main reasons the Suns were able to pull out a victory in Charlotte Friday night, and he continues to be one of the most consistent positives for the Suns every time he steps on the court
Tucker has worked hard to improve his offensive game after earning a reputation as a tenacious defender last season. This plan seems to be working for him as he has developed one of the most consistent strokes from the corner in the entrie league. In fact, P.J. tucker is currently tied for 10th place in highest three-point percentage thus far, and nearly all of those shots have come from that corner area that he has seemingly perfected.
P.J. has stepped up his game in a big way this season, while still continuing to hustle on every play and defend some of the best players on the opposing teams. Tucker deserves to be recognized this week for his hard work and consistency on both ends of the court. He remains one of the Suns most underrated players.
The Suns were able to overcome one of their sloppiest games of the season, hanging on just long enough to secure a victory tonight over the Charlotte Bobcats.
Tonight, the Phoenix Suns took on the Charlotte Bobcats on the road, looking to end a four-game losing streak. The Suns fell behind early in the first quarter but were able to fight back and take a three point lead at the end of the first quarter 27-24.
In the second quarter, the Suns continued to battle with the Cats, but were eventually able to build on their lead going into the half, 55-44.
the third quarter was long and drawn out with tons of trips to the line. There were 22 free throws in all between both teams. This is also when Channing Frye and P.J. Tucker got into a bit of foul trouble, collecting 4 each. Still, the suns were able to hold serve and end the quarter maintaining an 11 point lead.
The fourth quarter started with a 10-0 run for the Suns before Cody Zeller stopped the bleeding at about four and a half minutes in. The Suns started to look a little sluggish about midway through the quarter again, but a four-point play by Channing Frye and an alley-oop from Dragic to Markief Morris helped to stretch the lead and put the Suns in coasting mode with about 4 minutes to go.
However, the Suns once again got sloppy for no reason after leading by as much as 21, and the Bobcats were able to cut down the lead to only 13 with around two minutes to go after an easy transition basket and two back-to-back turnovers that led to easy points for Charlotte...leading Hornacek to call a time out.
Even after P.J. Tucker hit a three to put the Suns back up by 15, the Suns once again gave up an easy transition basket and Ish smith threw a wild pass for yet another turnover, and before the Suns knew it they were up by only eight points with just over a minute to go.
The pace turned frantic and Dragic turned the ball over yet again, but fortunately for the Suns the Bobcats were unable to capitalize. However, when Dragic was intentionally fouled with just 45 seconds to go, he missed both free-throws...unbelievable. After a jump ball the Bobcats were once again able to cut the lead to just six after making a quick lay-up and this time they intentionally fouled Markieff Morris with just 26 seconds to go.
And guess what...he missed the first one...Here we go again. Fortunately he was able to make the second, Suns up seven.
On the other end of the court the Suns gave Charlotte three shot attempts by not boxing out, and the Bobcats were able to cut the lead to five before intentionally fouling Markieff Morris again. This time, he made the first and missed the second. Fortunately, P.J. Tucker was able to hustle down the missed free throw and then he was intentionally fouled...and of course missed his first free throw as well before making the second.
Still, there just wasn't enough time for the Bobcats to capitalize on all of the Suns' missed opportunities, and the Suns were able to hold on for the Win 98-91.
The only good thing I can say here is that the Suns built up enough of a lead at the beginning of the fourth quarter to sustain them through that disaster of a finish. I don't know what happens to the Suns without Eric Bledsoe on the floor, but it's apparent that they don't know how to hold a lead or close out a game, that much is for sure.
Of course, the most positive note of all is that the Suns were able to snap their four-game skid to once again put a "W" in the score column, no matter how ugly the end of the game was. The Suns have a great deal of work to do on their fourth quarter woes, as they simply cannot afford to play this way and expect to win games against quality opponents. The Suns were fortunate to escape with this win tonight.
Next up is another road game against the Orlando Magic on Sunday. Stay tuned...