If you aren't into statistics, this post probably isn't for you.
I view basketball as a game of 3 phases - offense, defense, and rebounding. Today, I had some extra time, and decided to try and translate that view of basketball into some clean-looking statistics. I've come up with 2 statistical measures of my own creation. I'm calling them "Points Created" and "NOSE." I'll explain below.
Now, there are two types of basketball stats - those that are driven by productivity (e.g. points per game), and those that are driven by efficiency (e.g. points per possession). Lately, the trend has been towards the latter, so I decided to buck the trend and go for the former. All of these stats are based on production per 36 minutes. I like this measure, as it approximates starters minutes for a good player.
We already have Points / 36 minutes and Assists / 36 minutes, courtesy of basketball-reference.com, but I wanted to be able to measure players based on their ability to CREATE offense, not just catch passes under the hoop and make wide-open stuffs.
To do this, I pulled in another stat available on hoopdata.com, abbreviated as %AST, which gives the % of shots for a given player which were the result of another players assist. In other words, they didn't create the shot - they just finished it. Then, with a little multiplication and subtraction, I split the point totals into two categories - assisted and un-assisted.
Next, I assigned a value of 2 points to every assist a player made. Finally, I added each players un-assisted points to this total, to create a statistic showing points created by that player. I define my new statistic, Points Created, thusly:
CREATED = [PTS - (PTS * %AST)] + (2 * AST)
Without further ado, here are your 2012 Phoenix Suns, by this measurement. Keep in mind these numbers are per 36 minutes, so they project totals as if all players had the same number of minutes.
No surprise, Steve on top by a huge margin here, and the other 2 point guards 2nd and 3rd, trailing by a wide margin. I was a little surprised by how poorly Marcin scores in my metric, but on second thought, that also seems to pass the eyeball test - most of his points come off of feeds by Steve.
Also, I didn't just do this for the Suns, I did it for all NBA players. Not surprising, Steve Nash is still on top of the list. Here's a top 20:
I restricted the listing to players who've played more than 300 minutes. I was a little surprised by the rookies Rubio and Irving making the list, as well as that guy sitting at #2 on the list.
What I'd like to do here is to take a measurement of PTS Against and AST Against, and compare it to an average of averages for opposing players at the named position, netting out to show either that a player is allowing more or less productivity than their opposition's average.
Only problem is, I can't find anywhere out there in internet land where I can find any sort of PTS against or AST against for individual players or positions. Defensive statistics appear to be strictly a TEAM-only affair, at this point. NBA.com has a neat feature that allows you to get player versus player head to head stats, but that's the closest I could come, and like everything at NBA.com, it's all graphics and moving parts, and will take forever to get any real information out of. If you know where such stats might be kept, let me know. I'd like to do this section properly.
Change of Possession
This originally started out as "rebounding," the 3rd phase of the game, but I expanded it to include all the counting stats that enumerate a change in possession. I define the statistic thusly:
NOSE = REB + STL + CHG - TO - (FGA - FGM)
Essentially, then, this stat adds up all the times that a player gains possession of the ball for his team (REB, STL, CHG), and deducts from it all the times he lost possession of the ball for his team (TO, Missed Shot). The difference represents a snapshot of whether a player is adding or subtracting from the number of possessions his team has to work with, and shows the extent to which he makes that happen.
Why call it NOSE? It's short for "Nose for the Ball," which I think sums up this statistic perfectly. Also, it let's me say fun things, like, "Marcin Gortat has the biggest NOSE on the Phoenix Suns:"
Higher numbers are better, but a negative NOSE is nothing to be ashamed of, as the mean for this statistic would actually be in negative numbers (about -2). For instance, Jared Dudley's -0.7 is actually above average for his position, showing that he has a 'nose for the ball.'
NOSE appears to vary inversely with CREATE - the more one creates offense, the more likely they are to rack up the missed shots and turnovers, thus ending up with a smaller NOSE.
Following is a top 20 for the league:
Lastly, NOSE should not be confused for a defensive statistic. It strictly measures how many "extra" possessions a player gives his team (or uses up in futility).
Hope you enjoyed this. I had fun putting it together.
The Suns began Wednesday nights game against the Warriors by attempting to gain victory without scoring many points and abstaining from any semblance of an effective defensive scheme. The result was not positive, as the Golden State Warriors jumped out to a 21-9 first quarter lead. David Lee led a balanced Golden State scoring attack with 13 points. The Warriors would end the quarter shooting over 60% from the field, and a season high 39 points. You read that correctly: 39 points, season high, Golden State Warriors (12-17).
The Suns bench players led a 12-5 run in the second to chip into the Warrior lead. But Golden State regrouped, while the Suns played in a lethargic, disinterested fashion. There were plenty of missed shots, turnovers, and poor defense to spread around. A late 7-0 run in the third by the starters lessened a brief 21 point deficit, and the Suns trailed 59-45 at the break.
Grant Hill led a third quarter charge as the Suns went on a 10-2 run. Channing Frye hit two straight 3's, and the Suns pulled within 7 with 3 minutes left. Another 7-2 run later and the Sun had awoken from their early game slumber, outscoring Golden State 34-24 in the third.
The Suns spent the first 8 minutes of the fourth quarter chipping away at the Warrior lead. A Gortat lay in with 4 minutes left forged a tie and a Jared Dudley finish off a Grant Hill inbound lob punctuated a 10-2 run which led to the first Suns lead of the game at 96-94.
After some back and forth that featured a spectacular Channing Frye offensive rebound/jam, the Suns had the ball down 104-102 with 19 ticks left. Grant Hill hit a driving layup to tie it up at 104 with 11 seconds left. On the ensuing play, Monta Ellis dribbled himself into what usually is Grant Hill defensive oblivion. As the clock ticked down, Ellis turned around and hit the game winner with Hill in his face.
And so ended the game, as did the first half of this season, in disappointing, heartbreaking fashion.
The starters came out flat, gave up 39 points. After that, the Suns won every quarter, but still couldn't seal the deal even after clawing back to a 104-104 tie with 11 seconds left. Normally a team can survive one bad quarter, but the first in this game was exceedingly bad for the Suns.
And what can we say about the final make by Ellis? Nothing more anyone could have done. Grant Hill is a great player, a great man, and a great freakin' NBA defender.
Enjoy the break people, perhaps we all need one.
|Final - 2.22.2012||1||2||3||4||Total|
|Golden State Warriors||39||20||24||23||106|
[Note by Seth Pollack, 02/22/12 10:25 PM MST ]
Alvin Gentry was as mad after this game as I've seen him before. Some choice quotes:
"The game was lost in the first ten minutes of the game. We got an opportunity to do something good and we come out like that is just ridiculous. It's unfair to the fans in the stands. The way we approached the game sucked...I am disgusted with the way we played and I'm disgusted with the fact that we got a chance to end the break on something upbeat and positive and instead we just walk though the first ten minutes of the game and that cost us."
"We have to decide what kind of team we want to be. Do we want to be a tease where we win a couple of games then we decide not to play the first ten minutes or are we going to be a team that bears down and tries to grind this thing out so we can get back into the playoff race. We have to decide that."
None of the players had any answer as to why things started off so badly. I can tell you that Gentry's sour mood wasn't completely reflected in the locker room.
Here's Alvin...and this doesn't include the first few cuts that include some F-bombs (I didn't get my camera set up in time to catch that).