Does anybody else get the feeling this guy might not be rooting for the Suns today?

The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery is today at 8 p.m. ET and will be televised on ESPN and streamed online at WatchESPN.com. The Phoenix Suns will be making an uncommon consecutive appearance. As usual, the festivities will be overseen by the charismatic and judicious NBA commissioner David Stern.

The NBA lottery is an annual catalyst that shapes the futures of the downtrodden. It brings with it the hope of a sudden and dramatic change of fortune from punching bag to prizefighter.

The grand prize this year is Anthony Davis, a 6'10" power forward from the NCAA champion Kentucky Wildcats, but there are other intriguing subplots to follow as well. Between partially protected picks and teams jockeying for position in what is considered one of the deeper drafts in recent years, many of the participants have much to lose or gain.

There is also the scintilla of a chance that the Phoenix Suns will defy the odds and clamber up the board from #13 to the top 3. For the skinny on all things draft lottery, jump (and keep your fingers crossed the Suns jump later today).

Here are the contestants in the 2012 NBA lottery along with their odds of claiming the #1 overall pick:

1. Charlotte Bobcats - 25.0%

2. Washington Wizards - 19.9%

3. Cleveland Cavaliers - 13.8%

4. New Orleans Hornets - 13.7%

5. Sacramento Kings - 7.6%

6. Portland Trailblazers (via NJ - protected top 3) - 7.5%

7. Golden State Warriors (protected top 7) - 3.6%

8. Toronto Raptors - 3.5%

9. Detroit Pistons - 1.7%

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Clippers via Timberwolves) - 1.1%

11. Portland Trailblazers - 0.8%

12. Milwaukee Bucks - 0.7%

13. Phoenix Suns - 0.6%

14. Houston Rockets - 0.5%

The following chart shows the exact odds of each team's possible scenarios:

# 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 25.00% 21.47% 17.72% 35.81%
2 199 19.90% 18.78% 17.06% 31.86% 12.40%
3 138 13.80% 14.24% 14.53% 23.82% 29.05% 4.55%
4 137 13.70% 14.16% 14.47% 8.51% 32.31% 15.58% 1.27%
5 76 7.60% 8.44% 9.46% 26.24% 38.48% 9.36% 0.43%
6 75 7.50% 8.33% 9.36% 41.38% 29.38% 3.94% 0.11%
7 36 3.60% 4.16% 4.90% 60.00% 25.26% 2.06% 0.03%
8 35 3.50% 4.05% 4.77% 70.38% 16.50% 0.08% 0.01%
9 17 1.70% 2.00% 2.40% 81.34% 12.18% 0.38%
10 11 1.10% 1.30% 1.57% 86.99% 8.86% 0.18%
11 8 0.80% 0.95% 1.15% 90.75% 6.27% 0.08%
12 7 0.70% 0.83% 1.01% 93.55% 3.89% 0.02%
13 6 0.60% 0.71% 0.87% 96.03% 1.79%
14 5 0.50% 0.59% 0.72% 98.18%

Chart development assisted by xlssports.com

Of the teams picking in this year's lottery, only the Charlotte Bobcats (who just finished their 8th season), Detroit Pistons, and Phoenix Suns have never been winners.

Teams that have won once include the New Orleans Hornets (when they were still in Charlotte in 1991), the Sacramento Kings (1989), the Portland Trailblazers (2007), the Golden State Warriors (1995), the Toronto Raptors (2006), and the Houston Rockets (2002).

The Washington Wizards (2001, 2010) and Milwaukee Bucks (1994, 2005) have each won twice.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won once with their pick (2003), but twice more with the Clippers pick (1986, 2011) for a total of three.

The LA Clippers (conspicuously absent from the proceedings this year) have won the lottery an astounding 5 times (including the two #1 picks they sent to Cleveland). If New Orleans wins the lottery with the Clippers pick this year, it will be the third time the Clippers have given away the #1 overall selection.

Lottery History

From 1966-1984 the NBA determined the #1 pick by flipping a coin. In 1969 the Suns lost a coin flip to the Milwaukee Bucks for the #1 pick. The Milwaukee Bucks got Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar). The Suns got Neal Walk.

1985 marked the famous frozen envelope draft, where the NY Knicks became the first lottery winner after a change in structure. The Knicks used their pick to draft Patrick Ewing. The Spurs also leapfrogged from 4 to 1 to draft "the Admiral" David Robinson in 1987 during the envelope era.

1990 marked the inception of the weighted system. There were 11 teams in the lottery and the worst team got 11 chances, the second worst 10 chances, etc. out of a total of 66. The worst team had a 16.7% chance of getting the top pick in this system. In 1993 the Orlando Magic became the only team to win the lottery with the best record of all lottery teams (they were 11th out of 11 teams that year and won with 1 chance out of 66).

The system was changed to give the worse teams better odds after the 1993 draft, and that has subsequently lead to the current ping pong ball structure that is in place today.

Since 1994, the team with the worst record has only won the lottery twice. Those two teams were the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003 (Lebron James) and the Orlando Magic in 2004 (Dwight Howard). Teams originally slated 3rd and 5th have won the lottery 4 times each over the same period. A full list of lottery winners and players selected #1 overall can be viewed here. A more detailed lottery history can be perused here.

Things to watch for

Portland has a 74.81% chance of receiving Brooklyn's top-3 protected pick. Portland enters the draft with only a 2.80% chance of landing a top 3 pick with their position at #11, but stand to make a possible meteoric rise if they can hit on two mid to late lottery selections this year. Couple those picks with Aldridge, Batum, and the flexibility they have under the cap and this could end up being a defining summer for the Blazers organization and vastly improve an opponent of the Suns in the Western Conference.

Utah has a 27.35% chance of receiving Golden State's top-7 protected pick. This could have ramifications for the Suns either way. The availability of players such as Brandon Rush (GS) and Paul Millsap (Utah) could be influenced by the end result of this pick.

New Orleans actually has a 46.3% chance of landing a top 3 pick by virtue of being slotted at both #4 and #10. The franchise was just sold after being operated by the league and has faced a great deal of adversity over the last few years. It would be the latest fix a huge reversal of fortune for the Hornets to land the opportunity to draft Anthony Davis.

Then, of course, there is the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have a 0.6% chance of landing the #1 overall pick and a 2.18% chance of ascending to the top 3. The Suns have only drafted in the top 3 twice in franchise history. In 1969 they picked Neal Walk 2nd overall, and in 1987 they used the 2nd selection on Armen Gilliam. I'm sure the current administration would love a crack at atoning for those underwhelming results. Since the draft expanded to 13 teams in 1996, no double digit seed has won the lottery. It's bound to happen eventually, so let's hope the scales of kismet tip in the Suns favor tonight.

***Additional Content: Check out the SB Nation draft piece by Tom Ziller where our own inimitable East Bay Ray details why the Suns deserve to win tonight's lottery. There are also 11 less compelling arguments for the other potential candidates.


For one night Suns fans can forget the apparent doom and gloom of their favorite team’s future and hope that the odds are ever in their favor in a way that could change the direction of the...

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May 28, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) works for position against Boston Celtics small forward Paul Pierce during the first half in game one of the Eastern Conference finals of the 2012 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Arena.  Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

The Miami Heat had extra rest, were at home and are better than the banged up Boston Celtics. That all played out exactly to script in Game 1 of the 2012 NBA Playoff Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics kept it close in the first half and then ran out of gas. The 93-79 home win for the Heat gives them a 1-0 lead in the series with Game 2 in Miami on Wednesday.

In the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs are also the older team, but they are deeper and healthier than Boston. That showed in Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder with their ability to close a fourth quarter gap with bench play and then close out the game on the back of Manu Ginobili.

Game 2: Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs at 9:00 p.m. ET / 6:00 p.m. PT on TNT

Neither of these teams played great in Game 1 and yet it was a great game. Both should be sharper with their shots which could make for a real thriller in Game 2.

Here's the remaining schedule for the 2012 NBA Playoff Western Conference Finals Series (all times in ET):

Game 3: Thursday, May 31 at Oklahoma City, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 4: Saturday, June 2 at Oklahoma City, 9:00 p.m. ET
Game 5: Monday, June 5 at San Antonio, 8:30 p.m. ET*
Game 6: Wednesday, June 6 Oklahoma City, 9:00 p.m. ET*
Game 7: Friday, June 9 at San Antonio, 9:00 p.m. ET*

Here's the remaining schedule for the 2012 NBA Playoff Eastern Conference Finals Series (all times in ET):

Game 2: Wednesday, May 30 at Miami, 8:30 p.m.
Game 3: Friday, June 1 at Boston, 8:30 p.m.
Game 4: Sunday, June 3 at Boston, 8:30 p.m.
Game 5: Tuesday, June 5 at Miami, 8:30 p.m.*
Game 6: Thursday, June 7 at Boston, 8:30 p.m.*
Game 7: Saturday, June 9 at Miami, 8:30 p.m.*

For more on the Spurs, visit Pounding The Rock. while Thunder fans should visit Welcome To Loud City. Celtics homers can head over to Celtics Blog, while for more on the Heat check out Peninsula Is Mightier.

Check out the SB Nation Channel on YouTube


Wouldn't you rather look at this picture of Carnival celebrants than one of LeBron or Garnett? I thought so.

Memorial Day weekend concludes tonight with the opening of the Eastern Conference Finals in Miami as the Celtics face the Heat. Chris Bosh is still out indefinitely, while the Celtics have lost rising young guard Avery Bradley for the rest of the postseason due to a shoulder injury.

The Spurs beat the Thunder in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, 101-98, behind Manu Ginobili's 26 points. It wasn't even a very impressive performance by the Spurs, they trailed much of the way, but then took care of business in the fourth like a well-oiled machine. San Antonio hasn't lost a game since April 11th, and keep in mind that includes a couple at the end of the regular season where they sat players since they had nothing to play for.

Last Night's Recaps

Tonight's Game

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, 5:30PM MST, ESPN


Remember when Channing totally shut down Blake Griffin? Good times ...

Summer has begun, classes are over and I have nothing but time on my hands (until I get a summer job anyway). So, armed with MySynergySports.com, I've decided to assign myself the task of going through the Suns' roster and breaking down the usage and success rate of each position group.

I've already broken down the numbers for the power forwards on offense. Now it is time to see how Channing Frye and Markieff Morris fared on the other end of the court: defense.

Once again, Hakim Warrick is not worth writing about considering he didn't register enough plays to even qualify for a ranking on most play types. But his overall PPP was 0.98 and his ranking was 423, mostly do to being abused in the post and not defending spot-up shooters very well at all.

Make the jump to see the breakdowns of the guys who mattered.

First, allow me to explain in more detail the numbers I looked at. Here's a key for the terms Synergy uses:

Synergy Stat Definitions


PPP – Points Per Play. A "Play" is always ended with a shot attempt, turnover or getting to the free throw line. PPP is the player’s total points, excluding technical free throws, divided by their total plays.

Rank – This is where a player or team’s PPP ranks amongst their league peers. A player must have at least 25 plays for a given category in order to qualify for a league ranking.

%SF - Percent Shooting Foul. This is the percentage of plays where the player or team drew a shooting foul.

%TO – Percent Turnover. This is the percentage of plays where the player or team turns the ball over.

%Score – Percent Score. This is the percentage of plays where the player or team scores at least 1 point, including any resulting free throws.

So these numbers track the raw results. They don't factor in everything, which is where the interpretation begins and where watching the games live helps.

The offensive categories are Isolation, Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler, Post-Up, Pick-and-Roll Roll Man, Spot-Up, Off Screen, Hand-Off, Cut, Offensive Rebound, Transition, All Other Plays and Overall. On defense, the categories are the same minus the Cut, Offensive Rebound, Transition and All Other Plays categories as there aren't really any individual defenders assigned on these plays.

With that out of the way, let's dive into the numbers.

Channing Frye

Channing Frye’s most commonly defended play is the one he struggles with the most, unfortunately: spot-up shooting. He defended spot-up shooters on 36.8% of his plays, and gave up an ugly 1.04 PPP (ranked 285). The PPP is given a bump by the 28-72 3-point shooting against him, but he struggled even more inside the arc, where opponents shot nearly 50%. Overall, opposing spot-up shooters scored 44.8% of the time against Frye’s defense. Offensively Frye is an asset as a spot-up shooter, but he’s also a liability defending the same play at the other end.

Frye also defended post players quite often (29.7%) and fared much better. He gave up 0.78 PPP, was ranked 99th and held opponents to 37% shooting. He fouled as often as he forced a turnover, but didn’t do either at a high rate. Post players scored against Frye 39.5% of the time. This is an area Frye has certainly improved in over the years, and he’s become a formidable post defender.

He’s done very well in 79 isolation situations this year with a PPP of 0.63, good for a rank of 44. He held opponents to 28.2% shooting and a %Score of 31.6%. He did even better on his 61 plays defending the roll man in the pick-and-roll with a 0.79 PPP and a rank of 26. He was scored against only 39.3% of the time in the pick-and-roll.

His overall PPP was 0.87 and his ranking was 197, although he was only scored against at a 39.6% clip. The numbers are skewed by his poor numbers against spot-up shooters, especially the 3-pointers he gave up.

Markieff Morris

Morris also defended spot-up shooters more than anything else (45.7%), and he gave up a more respectable 0.91 PPP, which earned him a rank of 147. Shooters converted at a 38.6% rate, including 32.3% from 3-point range. Overall, shooters scored 38.7% of the time against Morris.

Unfortunately, Morris didn't do so well in the post. He defended post players on 79 plays, and was abused with a PPP of 1.13 (ranked 271). Opponents shot 61.4% and he also committed six shooting fouls. He did force 12 turnovers, but his %Score was still 55.7%, which is not good at all.

Morris wasn't very good in his 38 isolation plays either, fouling another five times and giving up a %Score of 39.5%, the highest of the Suns' four bigs. He did a little better on 33 plays against the roll man of the pick-and-roll, with a %Score of 51.3%, but he struggled to get out on shooters in the pick-and-pop as his opponents hit six of their nine 3-point attempts against his defense.

Overall, Morris put up a pretty bad PPP of 0.99, which has him ranked 429th. Yikes. Opponents scored against him 45.3% of his defensive possessions. Oddly enough, his overall %SF was 6.8%, which doesn't seem that bad. Fouling was a big problem for him as a rookie, but it seems like a lot of these fouls may be more of the loose ball or on-the-floor variety rather than shooting fouls.

Conclusion

Channing Frye's defensive numbers are pretty interesting. For all those that still say he is a terrible defender, that simply isn't the case. Outside of defending spot-up situations, Frye was pretty good. A lot of people advocate letting Robin Lopez move on via free agency and sliding Frye back to the center position behind Gortat. Considering he did well defending post-ups, isolations and pick-and-rolls, but struggled to defend shooters, that strategy seems to have some support in the numbers. The question is, how would these numbers translate to Frye guarding centers as opposed to power forwards? That I don't know. The last time Frye was used primarily as a center (2009-10), he really was a bad defender and didn't do so well. But he's come a long way since then, and considering he might be playing against back-ups more than starting centers he might do just fine.

Markieff Morris, however, struggled in more than just one area. He was lost often enough defensively and was taken advantage of by the more experienced players he was asked to defend. It's pretty difficult for most rookies to come into the league and play good defense in their first year, and the jump was made even more difficult due to the lack of offseason and in-season practice time. Morris is a tough player with a strong base, so there's certainly no reason as to why he can't be a good defender. We'll just have to wait and see what he will do next year after a full offseason and a year of experience under his belt before we make any judgments.

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