Phoenix Suns Musings: Fun With Numbers...Harsh Realities...'11 NBA Draft

Arizona's Derrick Williams (23) dunks over Oregon's Teondre Williams (32) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game at McKale Center in Tucson, Ariz., Thursday, Feb. 11, 2010. Arizona won 70-57. (AP Photo/Wily Low)

Opening Prayer:

Oh NBA Lord we love you,

You are big, so very big

in fact huge you are,

we're all REALLY IMPRESSED.

Thank you for the spherical leather object we call the ball,

A hard court to bounce the ball on,

All these things we thank you for,

Oh sweet lord, a Basketball team to love,

to root for, to cry about and for.

Dear NBA lord these things we pray,

Day by...day by day, we pray that you fix Steve's crotchal region,

And Channing's arm.

Dear Gentle, accomodating NBA God,

either make VC good or injure him for the remainder of the season.

Or perhaps we can pray for no harm, 

Just a gentle OD of cookies.

And for our Suns in the 2011 draft one or two good rookies 

Thank you dear sweet, sweet NBA Lord.

 

Does Robin Lopez Suck?

The Suns gave Goran Dragic approximately 2.5 seasons to impress them before dispatching him for a player who was more developed but arguably a lower ceiling. Dragic showed flashes of brilliance throughout his career as a Sun. Similarly, Robin Lopez has shared the "Moments of Brilliance" tag with Dragic. If the Suns found it acceptable to trade Dragic at this point in his career, why wouldn't they find it acceptable to trade Lopez? Both are young enough and have a pretty decent market value. Especially Lopez as a 7 footer who has some tools to work with. 

With the emergence of Marcin Gortat, Robin Lopez is expendable. I'll throw some numbers at this statement below to validate it. Yes it is nice to have a two headed monster, a quality 5 (Gortat) along with something better than Jarron Collins to back him up. Yet the Suns have needs. If Lopez is underperforming/needs a change of scenery/breaks too many doors, then why not send him to the highest bidder?

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR SCHMUCKS (Dumbing it Down):

Tonight I set out to prove Robin Lopez sucks. And while many of you my bretheren would agree with that statement without some sort of numbers based evidence, I felt it only ethical to reach a verdict by statistic. But which one? How do we prove a player sucks?

League-wide statistical ranks are one option, going Hollinger-Geek is another.  One could also just toss a whole bunch of numbers at the wall and see what sticks. So I'll do this...

Are you all familiar with the NBA's "Efficiency Rating?"  In short this is a number we can use to evaluate players. It goes something like this:

((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

Per the wikipedia, this was created by one John Hollinger, who I respect, because he's certainly more intelligent than I, he's landed a high paying gig with ESPN, and he's bald and hasn't stapled a chipmunk to his head (just like me). Nevertheless I tend to overlook his rankings:

The Player Efficiency Rating is ESPN Insider writer John Hollinger's all-in-one basketball rating, which attempts to boil down all of a player's contributions into one number. Using a detailed formula, Hollinger developed a system that rates every player's statistical performance.

Everyone knows that the statistic is flawed, and Mr. Hollinger even admits to it. The one area in which efficiency seems to gain credence though is the list of the all-time top 50 efficiency leaders in the NBA. 27 of the names are currently in the NBA Hall of Fame. Another 8 names are active and most likely will go to the Hall of Fame. That is 35 of 50 names. Again, it is not perfect, but it gives us something to work from. So back to Robin Lopez...

Robin Lopez is averaging 7 points and 3 rebounds a game. There. Simple. An average fan can look at that and figure the guy isn't so great. But you and I are sophisticated thinkers and passionate Suns fans. We can do more:

  • Robin Lopez is currently residing in 38th place among Centers in the league with an efficiency rating per 48 minutes of 22.86.  
  • Robin Lopez's PER ranks him at 25th in the leaugue at 14.82, just below Hibbert, Mohammed, Speights and Foster.
  • If we want to look at it in a different light, how about Averaged PTS/Rebounds/Assists. This is simply addition:  AVGPPG+AVGRBPG+AVGAPG.  With a minimum of 46 games played, Robin Lopez is 30th in the league among Centers with average of 11.3.
  • Robin Lopez is 40th in the league among centers playing at least 17.3 minutes per game, give or take 2-3 mpg. 
  • If you go by the rebounds per 48 minutes PG, Lopez is 48th among centers with 10.0.

The problem with this statistic is that no one plays 48 minutes per game. Yes this is a way to put everyone on an even plane. But it still isn't a realistic way to analyze a guy's production.

What if we just got simple and assume that a 7-foot Center should be rebounding? Then wouldn't it make some sense to compare Lopez' s average rebounds to others who are playing about the same minutes?  Of all centers playing around 17 minutes a game, + or - 2-3 minutes, here is the class that Lopez is hanging with:

30. Nazr Mohammed , OKC-CHA
31.  Nenad Krstic , BOS-OKC
32.  Chris Wilcox , DET
33.  Jordan Hill , HOU
34.  Zydrunas Ilgauskas , MIA
35.  Joel Przybilla , CHA-POR
36.  Omer Asik , CHI
37.  Aaron Gray , NOH
38.  Zaza Pachulia , ATL
39.  Jermaine O'Neal , BOS
40.  Brad Miller , HOU

Lopez would fall here at #41.

The Draft?

The Washington/University of Arizona game was impressive. Isiah Thomas is good. Derrick Williams is great. He's a 19 year old PF fom Southern California if you don't follow the college game a whole lot.

He is currently averaging around 19 and 8 a game, along with 61% from both behind the arc and in front of it. If you want to go off the PER stat, you can say Williams is #2 in the league. His TS% (true shooting) is 3rd in the league at 72.4

Williams has been mentioned in mock drafts from 1-5.

From Draft Express:

While he's not the biggest player in this draft (he's likely to measure somewhere between 6-8 and 6-9), nor the longest or most explosive, Williams' polished skills, high basketball IQ and fantastic scoring instincts are tools that NBA teams are in desperate need of these days. Smart, versatile power forwards who can create their own offense and score from anywhere on the floor are viewed by many as the second-most coveted players in the league right now after pick-and-roll point guards.

If you are the Suns brain trust of Gentry/Blanks/Babby/Sarver, what are you thinking? Gortat is the man in them iddle. Finding Lopezesque production is probably fairly cheap, and most of us can agree that Lopez doesn't have the ceiling of a top big man in the league. The glaring need is a dominant 4. But have the Suns found it in Channing Frye? He's brought his defense this year and upped is work on the boards. While were talking ceilings, can Frye at 28 become even better? A 20/10 guy? If not, what's more expensive, trading into the top 5, or signing an established veteran to a huge contract?

OR

Is this the Summer the Suns finally deal with the harsh reality that Steve Nash may need to go? If so, do you package Nash and Lopez for a shot at top 5 pick? And if the Suns are dealing Nash, is Jimmer the heir apparrant?

Again from Draft Express:

Fredette shows excellent quickness, outstanding footwork and incredible creativity with the ball in his hands. He creates space to operate about as well as any guard in college basketball not named Kemba Walker, and he is a more complete scorer than Walker in terms of his offensive polish.

His best asset is clearly his shooting ability, which borders on outrageous when it comes to the difficulty of shots he is capable of making.

Certainly sounds like someone we know, yes?

Did u see this?

What about this? 

 


Oh, my friends I leave you for the moment and leave my musings at your door step.

 

 

What is next for the Phoenix Suns?


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